008
FXUS64 KFWD 141214
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
714 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
All forecast trends discussed below remain on track, and no
significant adjustments were needed with this morning`s update.
Decent mixing out of surface dewpoints during peak heating should
largely keep maximum heat index values below Heat Advisory
criteria this afternoon.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Monday/

Earlier showers and thunderstorms have all dissipated across North
and Central Texas this evening with mostly clear skies and warm
conditions prevailing. We`ll see south winds 5-10 mph overnight
with temperatures only falling into the mid 70s.

On Sunday, stronger ridging that has been centered over the
western CONUS will shift a little farther eastward into the
Plains accompanied by some drier air. This will mean an upward
tick in temperatures through the afternoon, although deeper mixing
should allow dewpoints to fall into the mid/upper 60s. With high
temperatures in the upper 90s, we`ll see heat indices approach 105
in a few locations. Rainfall chances will be considerably lower on
Sunday afternoon with drier air replacing the deeper moisture we
had on Saturday. We still can`t rule out an isolated storm across
our far eastern our southeastern counties, but PoPs will generally
be 10% or less.

The warmth will continue on Monday with several locations at or
just above 100 degrees along with near zero rain chances. Heat
indices may creep up above 105 in several locations and we`ll be
assessing the need for a Heat Advisory across parts of North
Texas.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 231 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/
/Tuesday and Beyond/

North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a
strong mid-level ridge centered over New Mexico through Wednesday.
Expect the hottest temperatures of the week Tuesday and Wednesday
with afternoon highs exceeding the century mark across much of
North Texas. Heat Advisory criteria will likely be met in several
locations Tuesday afternoon becoming more widespread Wednesday
afternoon with an increase in boundary-level moisture.

A shortwave trough will dig south across the Plains late Wednesday
into Thursday sending an associated cold front into North Texas by
Wednesday evening. This frontal boundary along with a series of
vorticity maxima rounding about the base of the mid-level
trough will provide support for scattered thunderstorms Wednesday
night through the end of the work week. A gradual north to south
progression of thunderstorm activity is expected as the boundary
slowly pushes south and mixes out over Central Texas late Thursday
into early Friday. Relatively weak flow aloft will keep the
threat for severe weather on the lower end, but a few more robust
storms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts will be
possible, especially south of I-20 where a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE is forecasted to reside. In general, 0.2"-0.5" of rainfall
is expected through Friday with 10% of locations observing
greater than 1.5". Increased cloudiness, precipitation, and
northerly flow behind the front will drop temperatures into the
upper 80s to low 90s.

The general model consensus is that the Southern Plains will
remain under the influence of upper troughing through the weekend
keeping an unsettled weather pattern over our region. This lines
up well with the Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 Day Outlook
highlighting a greater probability for above-normal precipitation
and below-normal temperatures across North and Central Texas next
weekend.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds around
10 kt. No significant aviation concerns are expected through
Monday.

Dunn

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  80 100  81 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                98  76 100  76  99 /   0   5   0   0   0
Paris               96  76  97  77  96 /  10   5   0   0   0
Denton              99  77 101  79 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            98  78 100  79 100 /   0   5   0   0   0
Dallas             100  80 102  81 101 /   0   5   0   0   0
Terrell             95  76  98  77  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           97  76  99  78  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
Temple              95  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       99  74 101  77 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$