Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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396 FXUS65 KFGZ 091037 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 337 AM MST Tue Jul 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will continue through much of the week, but starting today, precipitation chances will gradually increase through the weekend/into next week. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure continues to be centered over southern Nevada and northeastern Arizona, allowing temperatures to stay hot across the state. Afternoon highs will stay 5-15 degrees above average for the next few days, so there is a good chance we will see more record breaking temperatures before the end of the week. The dominating ridge will gradually push eastward throughout the week, landing in a more favorable monsoon pattern by the weekend. As a result, moisture will slowly increase across northern Arizona starting today and become more widespread by Saturday. For today, the majority of precipitation/thunderstorms will be focused near the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim. On the flip side, the latest U of A WRF run and the SPC HREF shows potential for a few isolated thunderstorms across Yavapai County this afternoon. Due to limited moisture and a large anticipated inversion layer, storms that do form today will likely be on the dry side. The potential for convective activity will spread westward each afternoon, but greatest chances will remain focused over the higher terrain. Despite PWAT values increasing through the week and hi-res guidance indicating the return of the monsoon, high pressure will still be sitting over much of the state. As a result, hot temperatures will stick around through much of the period. The Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for Yavapai County below 4000 feet through Thursday evening and for Marble/Glen Canyons below 4000 feet through Friday evening. Keep in mind depending on when/where showers/storms begin to form, afternoon highs may stay a little cooler than forecast, but even so, it will be hot. Lastly, overnight and early morning smoke/haze will continue to be noted across varies portions of our CWA due to a couple of wildfires in Utah and a few here in Arizona. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 09/12Z through Wednesday 10/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions outside of isolated SHRA/TSRA along and south of a KFLG-KSJN line. Gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, look for variable surface winds at 5-15 kts gusting 20 kts between 18Z-03Z, turning light and variable during the overnight hours. Haze and smoke may reduce visibilities, especially near KPGA and KGCN. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 10/12Z through Friday 12/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions outside of isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA along and south of a KFLG-KSJN line. Storms mainly isolated toward KFLG/KPRC with scattered coverage south of KSOW/KSJN. Gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, variable winds at 5-15 kts. Haze and smoke may continue to be an issue near KPGA and KGCN. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Hot and dry. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the White Mountains today, spreading to along and south of the Mogollon Rim on Wednesday. Winds westerly south of the Rim, northerly Rim northward at 5-15 mph gusting up to 20 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH values of 5-15% with overnight recoveries to 20-35% over northwest Arizona, 35-50% over central and eastern Arizona. Thursday through Saturday...Hot with gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Daytime winds light and variable at 5 to 10 mph. Minimum RH gradually rising each day from 5-20% on Thursday to 10-30% on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for AZZ005-006. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ037. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff