179
FXUS65 KFGZ 040338
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
838 PM MST Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions continue for most of northern
Arizona through the weekend and into early next week. The chance for
showers and storms will be limited to the White Mountains through
Monday, with a slow return back north and west possible toward
the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Showers have cleared this evening near the White
Mountains with west-northwest winds beginning to relax. Expect
clear skies overnight with cooler temperatures as much drier air
from the north and west settles in. High pressure will be large
and in charge across much of the West through this holiday weekend
with the main threat being the heat. Even though it is July and it
gets hot in Arizona during this time of the year, daytime
temperatures are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees above those
"normal" hot temperatures. Keep this in mind if you plan on doing
outdoor activities during each afternoon through next Monday.
Besides for cooling tonight`s low temperature forecast a few
degrees given the dry air and clear skies in place, the forecast
remains on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /420 PM MST/...4th of July through the Monday -
the strong ridge just off the west coast will dominate our weather
as it drifts slowly toward Arizona. With the center of the high
remaining to our west, this places northern Arizona in a northerly
flow pattern which is quite unfavorable for monsoon moisture. The
ensemble average Precipitable Water values for Flagstaff fall to
under a quarter inch by Friday, well below the 10th percentile and
approaching the lowest values observed for early July. The low
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be confined near the
White Mountains with dry weather elsewhere. The heat will build,
with afternoon highs 5-12 degrees above seasonal averages. The
Excessive Heat Warning below 4000 feet begins tomorrow and is
valid through Monday. This includes Yavapai County, the Grand
Canyon, and Marble/Glen Canyons in the Page area. Please practice
heat safety this holiday weekend, especially if you have outdoor
plans at the lower elevations.

Tuesday and Wednesday - the ridge is forecast to be centered just
north of the state. While hot weather is likely to continue, this
ridge position is just slightly more favorable for getting some
limited moisture back into the area. The latest forecast is for a
20-30% chance of rain along/south of the Mogollon Rim and somewhat
higher values toward the White Mountains. North of the rim, the
heat may prompt an extension of the Excessive Heat Warning beyond
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 04/00Z through Friday 05/00Z...VFR conditions
will continue. A few showers or thunderstorms possible near and
southeast of KSOW through about 03Z. SW to W winds 10-15 kts
gusting up to 25 kts through 02Z, becoming light overnight. Winds
Thursday becoming NW to N around 10 kts gusting up to 20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 05/00Z through Sunday 07/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions with northerly winds 10-20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday through Friday...Expect dry conditions
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will climb well above average.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph on Thursday, with a switch to
northerly.

Saturday through Monday...Hot and dry conditions are expected for
most areas through Sunday. Slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms over of the White Mountains and Eastern Mogollon Rim
through Sunday and then spreading to the Western Mogollon Rim
Monday. Daily northwest through northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Thursday to 8
PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff