658
FXUS65 KFGZ 100922
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
222 AM MST Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will continue through the week, with
a slight cooling trend returning over the weekend. Chances for
showers/thunderstorms will continue through much of the forecast
period, becoming more widespread in coverage by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The area of high pressure over much of the West
Coast is still centered around the AZ/NV border, but looks to
wobble eastward towards the Four Corners over the next few days.
Although the current synoptic set-up is not our typical monsoon
pattern, there is still enough moisture available to funnel up
from the southeast. The limited moisture and large-scale pattern
will keep activity primarily south of the I-40, similar to what
was seen across the area yesterday (Tuesday). The SPC HREF Most
Unstable CAPE also indicates the more likely locations for
convective activity to be across Yavpai County and northern Gila
County, which aligns nicely with the recent U of A WRF model run.

As we move towards the weekend, the previously mentioned high will
center over the Four Corners. This set-up is a more favorable
monsoon pattern, so anticipate a fairly active weekend/beginning
of next week for much of the state. It`s still a little far out to
nail down all the details for the weekend, but the Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) does have all of northern Arizona in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday, and model
guidance is suggesting PWAT values surpassing an inch for many
locations by Saturday. This essentially indicates storms this
weekend to have the potential to bring heavy rainfall leading to
flash flooding.

Even with the increase in moisture and storm potential,
temperatures are forecast to remain hot through the week.
Afternoon highs should cool slightly by Saturday, but still look
for 80-90 degree temperatures across the High Country and triple
digits for lower elevations. With that being said, there is an
Excessive Heat Warning out for Yavapai County below 4000` through
Thursday evening and also one out for areas below 4000` near
Glen/Marble Canyons through Friday evening.


&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 10/06Z through Thursday 11/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KGCN-KSJN line 18Z-02Z.
Winds generally light and variable, 5-15kts. Smoke from area
wildfires may reduce VIS, especially at night.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 11/06Z through Saturday 13/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. SCT afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA Friday and
Saturday. Winds generally light and variable, from 5-15kts. Smoke
from area wildfires may reduce VIS, especially at night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...The hot temperatures persist
each day with a gradual increase in monsoonal moisture. Afternoon
humidity will remain below 15% for today and Thursday. There is a 15
to 25% chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop
along and south of the Mogollon Rim for this afternoon, followed by
increasing chances along and south of the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains on Thursday. Outside of any gusty, erratic outflow winds
from storms, expect northerly winds, 15 to 20 mph, each afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...The above average temperatures begin a
cooling trend as monsoonal moisture returns to the region. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast on Friday, becoming
widespread for Saturday and Sunday across much of northern Arizona.
Wetting rains (>0.10") are expected with any storms along with gusty
and erratic outflow winds, up to 40 mph. Outside of any outflow
winds, anticipate west-southwest winds, 15 to 20 mph, each
afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for
AZZ005-006.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff