807
FXUS65 KFGZ 051850
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1150 AM MST Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
expected through the weekend. Temperatures continue to climb into
next week, along with gradually returning chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today and Sunday...Near normal temperatures and
mainly dry conditions remain over the remainder of the holiday
weekend. A few isolated showers and potentially a thunderstorm
will be possible over the White Mountains this afternoon, however
any activity will be minimal. Moisture continues to increase into
Sunday as high pressure begins to build over New Mexico and become
amplified by a cut-off low off of California. As a result, chances
for showers and thunderstorms increase on Sunday, mainly over the
higher terrain. With PWATs still only around 0.50-0.80", coverage
should remain fairly isolated and the threat for flash flooding
minimal.

Monday through Friday...Guidance continues to favor a strong area of
high pressure (596-598 dam) building over Arizona by the middle of
next week. While moisture does look to still be in place to some
degree, the resulting subsidence inversion from the ridge will act
to suppress any real chances for storm activity. Nevertheless, daily
chances remain each afternoon, but remain slim and largely confined
to the higher terrain.

Hot temperatures look to be the main story for the middle of next
week with the anomalously high heights. Afternoon highs in the upper
80s F to lower 90s F can be expected across the higher terrain, with
the lower deserts in the 100s F to near 115F in the warmest locations.
An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for the Lower Elevations of
the Grand Canyon, with additional headlines potentially needed for
the lower elevations of Yavapai County by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 05/18Z through Sunday 06/18Z...VFR conditions
forecast through the period. Slight chance for -SHRA/-TSRA between
18Z-00Z along and south of a KPAN-KSJN line. Look for SW winds
5-15 kts, gusting near 20 kts between 18Z-03Z. Gusty/erratic winds
possible near showers. Light and variable return overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 06/18Z through Tuesday 08/18Z...VFR conditions
forecast through the period. Daily chances for -SHRA/-TSRA along
and south of a KGCN-KSJN line between 18Z-03Z. Outside of
gusty/erratic storm driven winds, expect SW winds 10-20 kts
gusting near 25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Monday...A warming trend will
continue through the next several day, along with mostly dry
conditions. Minimum afternoon RH values forecast to be 10-20%. 20-
40% chance of high base showers/thunderstorms each afternoon,
primarily across the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Afternoon
winds look to be out of the west-southwest 10-20 mph. Gusty/erratic
winds possible near showers/storms.

Tuesday through Thursday...Hot and mostly dry conditions will
continue. 15-35% chance of showers near the White Mountains each
afternoon. Look for minimum RH values between 8-20%. West-northwest
winds 5-15 mph on Tuesday, becoming more westerly 10-20 mph on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening
for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff