567
FXUS65 KFGZ 071708
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1008 AM MST Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue for most of
northern Arizona through Tuesday with a gradual return of monsoon
moisture and thunderstorm chances heading into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Warm start to the day will translate into another hot
one across the region. A fire in Utah continues to put off quite a
bit of smoke and it can be seen on satellite pushing pretty far
south and on into Mexico this morning. Expect that smoke/haze will
be around for a while so do not be surprised if you smell smoke in
the air today or see hazy skies. Strongest smells will likely be
off towards the Lake Powell/Page area but with so much smoke
aloft, it could linger in spots. As the winds pick up through the
day, it should disperse a bit more but will likely start to settle
once again this evening.

Forecast looks to be on track this morning with only minor edits
needed. Stay cool out there today!

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /340 AM MST/...A strong and dry high pressure
systems will remain centered over the western states through
Wednesday then gradually shift eastward toward the end of the
week allowing for an increase in monsoon moisture and thunderstorm
chances.

Today through Tuesday...Strong high pressure and a hot/dry
northerly flow from over the Great Basin will continue. Near
record to record high temperatures will continue as well as an
Excessive heat Warning for elevations below 4000 feet. There is
always some chance limited moisture could sneak over the eastern
Mogollon Rim or White Mountains during this period but will result
in only virga showers or brief sprinkles at the surface. It`s just
too dry for anything more.

From Wednesday onward...As the high center gradually shifts
eastward the door will open to increasing monsoon moisture as the
flow becomes more southerly to southeasterly. Moisture will move
in first to the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon on Wednesday
and Thursday with an isolated threat of afternoon thunderstorms
developing. Forecast models in good agreement in shifting the high
center even further east becoming centered over the central to
southern United States next weekend. Under this pattern deep
southerly flow is expected to develop opening the door to
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across northern
Arizona. We`ll be keeping an eye on this but the end of our heat
wave and the return of weather more typical of July is in sight.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 07/18Z through Monday 08/18Z...VFR conditions
with W/NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts before 03Z, then
becoming light and variable.

OUTLOOK...Monday 08/18Z through Wednesday 10/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, with MVFR possible during the afternoon Tuesday in
vicinity of KSOW/KJTC. Winds W-NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday...Expect the hot and dry
conditions to persist each day with high pressure in place.
Widespread, single-digit minimum humidity is forecast each afternoon
with poor to moderate recoveries overnight. Anticipate stronger
northwest winds for this afternoon, 15 to 30 mph, becoming more
north, 10 to 25 mph, on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Hot, above average temperatures continue
each day. Moisture begins to gradually increase from the southeast
with chances for showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains on
Tuesday and Wednesday, extending towards the west on Thursday.
Afternoon humidity looks to remain below 15% each day along with
lighter northerly winds, 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for
AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/McCollum
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff