825
FXUS63 KFGF 111121
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
621 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend into the start of the work week with the next
  precipitation chances arriving mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

One area temporarily dropped down to 1/4SM due to fog but due to
how isolated the fog is, decided against an SPS. Every
observation surrounding the fog reports unrestricted visibility.
The sun rising should dissipate the fog in an hour or so.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...Synopsis...

The upper level low will begin to pull off amplifying the small
area of high pressure over us. Monday, an upper level low will
travel eastward across the Canadian Providences and flattening
our temporary ridge. Late tuesday night into Wednesday a
shortwave may give the northern plains a brief instance of light
showers depending on timing. The main trough looks to arrive
Wednesday evening into Thursday for our chance at heavier
showers and a few thunderstorms. NBM probs for greater than or
equal to 0.25 inches of rain are between 50 to 60 percent across
our area and 30 to 40 percent for 0.5 inches. Probs for greater
than an inch are less than 20 percent currently. There is some
uncertainty with the severity of these storms developed from the
passing of the trough. Some models have backed off on the
amount of shear available and some want to depict this with
strong warm air advection. The model soundings from the NAM want
to make things spin as it chooses strong advection with SRH
greater than 200 m2/s2. Some models depict this as more of a
heavy rain event with some lightning produced. WPC QPF may
suggest some compromise as it paints convective bullseyes of
almost 2 inches across the center of the valley. Timing is also
uncertain as all the globals are slightly different the GFS
being a little more progressive and the Canadian being the
slowest of the big 3. The ECMWF seems to be the compromise
between the two. It`s probably going to best to let this cook a
little more before deciding to message outcomes of this trough
passage. By the weekend the trough should be moved out of the
Northern Plains and we start to dry out again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

An area of high pressure has settled over the Northern Plains.
VFR conditions are expected to remain at the TAF sites for the
duration of the TAF period. Winds will remain light and variable
today through tomorrow morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...MM