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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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821 FXUS63 KFGF 111732 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend into the start of the work week with the next precipitation chances arriving mid-week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Some cumulus starting to form across the northern Red River Valley and MN lakes country, but otherwise continued very quiet as we head into mid-day. Minimal tweaks to the going forecast. UPDATE Issued at 939 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 The isolated fog has burned off, leaving clear skies and light winds this morning. Temps in the low 60s should climb into the mid to upper 70s by afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 One area temporarily dropped down to 1/4SM due to fog but due to how isolated the fog is, decided against an SPS. Every observation surrounding the fog reports unrestricted visibility. The sun rising should dissipate the fog in an hour or so. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...Synopsis... The upper level low will begin to pull off amplifying the small area of high pressure over us. Monday, an upper level low will travel eastward across the Canadian Providences and flattening our temporary ridge. Late tuesday night into Wednesday a shortwave may give the northern plains a brief instance of light showers depending on timing. The main trough looks to arrive Wednesday evening into Thursday for our chance at heavier showers and a few thunderstorms. NBM probs for greater than or equal to 0.25 inches of rain are between 50 to 60 percent across our area and 30 to 40 percent for 0.5 inches. Probs for greater than an inch are less than 20 percent currently. There is some uncertainty with the severity of these storms developed from the passing of the trough. Some models have backed off on the amount of shear available and some want to depict this with strong warm air advection. The model soundings from the NAM want to make things spin as it chooses strong advection with SRH greater than 200 m2/s2. Some models depict this as more of a heavy rain event with some lightning produced. WPC QPF may suggest some compromise as it paints convective bullseyes of almost 2 inches across the center of the valley. Timing is also uncertain as all the globals are slightly different the GFS being a little more progressive and the Canadian being the slowest of the big 3. The ECMWF seems to be the compromise between the two. It`s probably going to best to let this cook a little more before deciding to message outcomes of this trough passage. By the weekend the trough should be moved out of the Northern Plains and we start to dry out again. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Some cumulus starting to develop at KBJI and KGFK, but 4500 ft and above so conditions should remain VFR throughout the period. Winds will be light and variable under high pressure. Cumulus will dissipate after sunset but given no change in winds and category remaining VFR saw little reason to include another line in the TAF. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MM/JR DISCUSSION...MM AVIATION...JR