821
FXUS63 KFGF 111732
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend into the start of the work week with the next
  precipitation chances arriving mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Some cumulus starting to form across the northern Red River
Valley and MN lakes country, but otherwise continued very quiet
as we head into mid-day. Minimal tweaks to the going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 939 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

The isolated fog has burned off, leaving clear skies and light
winds this morning. Temps in the low 60s should climb into the
mid to upper 70s by afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

One area temporarily dropped down to 1/4SM due to fog but due to
how isolated the fog is, decided against an SPS. Every
observation surrounding the fog reports unrestricted visibility.
The sun rising should dissipate the fog in an hour or so.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...Synopsis...

The upper level low will begin to pull off amplifying the small
area of high pressure over us. Monday, an upper level low will
travel eastward across the Canadian Providences and flattening
our temporary ridge. Late tuesday night into Wednesday a
shortwave may give the northern plains a brief instance of light
showers depending on timing. The main trough looks to arrive
Wednesday evening into Thursday for our chance at heavier
showers and a few thunderstorms. NBM probs for greater than or
equal to 0.25 inches of rain are between 50 to 60 percent across
our area and 30 to 40 percent for 0.5 inches. Probs for greater
than an inch are less than 20 percent currently. There is some
uncertainty with the severity of these storms developed from the
passing of the trough. Some models have backed off on the
amount of shear available and some want to depict this with
strong warm air advection. The model soundings from the NAM want
to make things spin as it chooses strong advection with SRH
greater than 200 m2/s2. Some models depict this as more of a
heavy rain event with some lightning produced. WPC QPF may
suggest some compromise as it paints convective bullseyes of
almost 2 inches across the center of the valley. Timing is also
uncertain as all the globals are slightly different the GFS
being a little more progressive and the Canadian being the
slowest of the big 3. The ECMWF seems to be the compromise
between the two. It`s probably going to best to let this cook a
little more before deciding to message outcomes of this trough
passage. By the weekend the trough should be moved out of the
Northern Plains and we start to dry out again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Some cumulus starting to develop at KBJI and KGFK, but 4500 ft
and above so conditions should remain VFR throughout the period.
Winds will be light and variable under high pressure. Cumulus
will dissipate after sunset but given no change in winds and
category remaining VFR saw little reason to include another
line in the TAF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM/JR
DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...JR