985
FXUS63 KFGF 052342
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
642 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms with a level 1 out of 5 risk is
  forecasted Monday afternoon and evening.

- The potential exists for strong or severe storms Thursday
  afternoon and evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Smoke may begin to intrude on northern Minnesota this evening
from wildfires in Manitoba and Ontario. Other than that, skies
should remain partly cloudy overnight tonight with minimal
chances for precipitation.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...Synopsis...

Currently, this FA is sandwiched between the departing wave
that brought storms yesterday, and an approaching wave from the
west. As the wave to our west propagates east, it will spark
off thunderstorms over the high plains of Montana and western
North Dakota. Whatever few remnants remain of these storms will
push into the Devils Lake Basin Sunday morning, bringing a low
chance for showers. Elsewhere, Sunday will remain dry.

Yet another wave propagates down from Canada by Monday. This
wave looks to have a little more going for it, bringing the
potential for severe weather Monday afternoon/evening.
Thereafter, broad ridging will warm temperatures up, but also
allow moisture to once again advect northward. This should open
the door for another chance of thunderstorms Thursday, some of
which may be strong to severe. Temperatures will cool behind
the wave Friday into the first half of next weekend.

...Severe Potential Monday...

The approaching wave out of the Canadian Prairies will provide
sufficient forcing for storms Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability ahead of the wave advertises CAPE values of up to
1500 J/Kg. Shear is also present, about 35 knots worth from 0-6
km. Mid level lapse rates however are on the lower side, and
hodographs would support some storm cell splitting. Added
together, initial supercells transitioning to a messier storm
mode with time seems the most favored outcome. Storm mode would
favor large hail as the main threat, but mid level lapse rates
look to be a potential limiting factor.

...Strong to Severe Storms Thursday...

A low pressure propagating across southern Canada midweek will
drape a cold front south of the International Border. Northward
advecting heat and moisture will produce an unstable airmass
across the Northern Plains. Of course front timing and
orientation will impact eventual storm evolution, and at this
timeframe it remains too early to pinpoint much for details.
However, ensembles show plentiful instability and bulk shear
that combined with the synoptic pattern, should be watched
closely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF period with any mid-
level clouds clearing out overnight. Some showers may impact DVL
tomorrow, but the probability is too low to add to this issuance
of the TAF. Winds will also diminish in intensity and remain
below 12 knots for a majority of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Perroux