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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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966 FXUS63 KFGF 132020 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 320 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Showers and thunderstorms are likely late Wednesday into Thursday, with lightning and locally heavy rainfall being the main impacts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...Synopsis... Low pressure system continues to develop over eastern Montana this afternoon, with preceding showers moving through North Dakota. Strong moisture return ahead of the low pressure and warm air advection will continue to translate eastward as we progress into Wednesday and Thursday. Current Satellite shows an expansive area of cumulus development that is diurnally driven. This should diminish and help increase ceilings later this evening and into the overnight period. Hazy conditions will be possible today and into Wednesday as high level smoke from the western United States shifts eastward across the area. General flow aloft will be zonal through the rest of the week bringing chances for shortwaves to shift through the region. After the work week, we start to see a slow shift in the pattern flow as ridge begins to intensify in the southwestern and western United States. ...Showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday... Our next chance for precipitation comes Wednesday into Thursday as the low pressure over Montana translates eastward into North Dakota and Minnesota. As this happens, warm air advection surges into eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota along with moisture. PWATS reach up into the 1.5 to 2 inch range. An axis of strong theta- E sets up in central North Dakota and into portions of the Devils Lake Basin and Sheyenne River Valley. This is where we suspect a boundary to become stationary Wednesday and in Thursday. Thunderstorms develop along this boundary and the probability of seeing locally heavy rainfall exists along said boundary. This would be due to back building and training thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall of 1.5 inches or higher will be possible (20-30% chance) within the Devils Lake Basin through the Sheyenne River Valley Wednesday through Thursday. There is a conditional threat for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, but environmental parameters of shear and instability are weak across the western Devils Lake Basin through the Sheyenne River Valley. None the less, there is a chance for stronger storms over those areas Wednesday afternoon, with small hail and brief gusty winds being the main impacts. Rain will gradually shift eastward Wednesday night and into Thursday. The low pressure system becomes very progressive in its movement toward the Great Lakes Thursday afternoon and Friday, but lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms will still be possible across the region. Our best chances for dry conditions will be over the weekend as the system moves east of the area and ridging develops out west bringing northwesterly flow. Further precipitation chances are possible next week, but confidence is low at this time. Temperatures will be seasonal over the next several days, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Cumulus continues to develop across the TAF sites this afternoon bringing BKN cloud coverage. MVFR ceilings are starting to develop underneath the BKN clouds. DVL is already experiencing MVFR ceilings, while GFK, TVF, FAR, and BJI will start to see MVFR ceilings around 19-21z. Clouds will be diurnally driven and around 01-03z ceilings will start to improve along with cloud coverage. Chance for showers start to increase this afternoon in the DVL region, with increased coverage end of the TAF period. Chance for Thunderstorms at the end of the TAF period for the Devils Lake Basin. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Spender AVIATION...Spender