535
FXUS63 KFGF 021455
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
955 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur much of the
  next 7 days. For Thu-Fri the heaviest rainfall has shifted
  south. No severe weather is expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Clearing has occurred everywhere now but the strip of counties
across our eastern border, running from Baudette to Bemidji to
Wadena. Meanwhile, cumulus is already starting to fill in the
sunny gaps, especially along and north of highway 2. Breezy west
winds are also showing up now to the west of the Red River
Valley. These will continue to push eastward through the late
morning and afternoon. There hasn`t been much shower development
yet, but that is still expected by late morning through the
afternoon as well. Overall, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 708 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Forecast on track. Clearing has made it into the east side of
the RRV and moving east. Clear sky in E ND. Expect to see CU to
develop late morning/midday and become BKN this aftn north half.
HRRR still indicates isold-sct t-storms developing this
aftn/eve.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...Synopsis...

500 mb low over Saskatchewan will move into Manitoba today and
then into northern Ontario Wednesday. Several short waves
around this system will move through areas along the
International border the next 24-48 hours giving scattered
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening to northern
1/2 of the fcst area. Next upper wave for the 4th into Friday
looks to give heaviest rainfall south of the area, with trends
in precipitation amounts continuing to lower in E ND/NW MN.


...Today...

Several 500 mb vortices seen rotating around the upper low this
early morning. One lifting northeast from north central ND into
south central MB, while main wave is lifting north into eastern
Manitoba and NW Ontario. Behind the main wave skies are clearing
but clouds return behind the wave moving out of north central
ND. Additional short waves, one located near Regina SK, will
move east along the Intl border this aftn. Enough heating today
to boost afternoon temps into the 70s. 500 mb temps cool to
around -11.5C from the current -9.5C and CAMs indicate isolated
to scattered t-storms forming early thru late afternoon mainly
northern 1/2 of the fcst area. With cooler air aloft small hail
would be possible from any thunderstorm. MUCAPES also reach the
1000-1200 j/kg range in the north RRV 21z-00z period.

...Wednesday...
Similar to today in that thought the main 500 mb low has moved
well northeast of the area lingering cold air aloft and sfc
heating with highs near 80 to generate isolated to scattered
t-storms in the aftn northern 1/2 of the fcst area. MUCAPES
reach near 1400 j/kg at 21z Wed.

...4th into the Weekend...
Our next more significant upper wave after this larger one
departs will move from British Columbia into western Montana and
then into South Dakota by 00z Fri. Models agree in having
highest rainfall to our south now....with axis of 1-2+ inch
rains more east central SD into southern MN Thu-Fri. Much
lighter rainfall in our area with amounts 0.75 to 1 inch far
south to under a tenth north. Severe weather is not anticipated.


Another fast moving short wave will move into North Dakota
Saturday giving shower and t-storm chances Sat-Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 708 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

IFR cigs BJI/TVF will clear out from the west this morning. CU
will form with daytime heating, VFR category, with bases likely
4-6k ft agl. West winds gusting to 20 kts or so E ND this aftn.
Isold/scat t-storms to form but coverage is such did not include
in TAFs yet.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle