677
FXUS63 KFGF 081130
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
630 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening.
  Tuesday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon
  and evening with lightning being the main hazard.


- Heat builds in for Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper
  80s and 90s along with humidity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Some light patchy fog has cropped up in some areas. However, no
impacts are expected since visibility has been around 3 miles or
more for the most part. Expecting the fog to burn off in the
next couple hours. CAMS look to develop some isolated showers
starting in the late afternoon early evening timeframe. Main
threat still looks to be lightning with these weak
thunderstorms.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...Synopsis...

Today the main upper level trough is moving over the Great
lakes with another low migrating into the lower portions of
Minnesota. Today`s temperatures are in the high 70`s to low
80`s with mostly clear to partially cloudy skies. This will
allow for optimal heating to reach convective temperature and
allow some isolated garden variety thunderstorms to pop up in
the late afternoon and early evening with showers to persist
into the overnight period. Bulk shear is still 20-30knots for
today and Tuesday. Model soundings are not depicting an
environment for anything severe to pop up.

Tuesday, the remnants of Beryl travels through the Central plains
redirecting most of our coastal moisture before another weak
shortwave passes through the northern plains later that evening and
into Wednesday. Most of our moisture content will probably consist
of whatever amount evapotransportation gives us from our farm fields.
The valley could experience some gusty winds as the pressure
gradient gets squeezed as the ridge moves into our region and the
shortwave moves south into the Great lakes.

Thursday through this weekend. The robust ridge makes its way over
to the Northern Plains. The NWS heat risk has the CWA in a moderate
on THursday and a Major for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures are
forecasted to be in the 80`s and potentially 90`s in some areas by
this weekend. Wear sunscreen, drink water, and eat light snacks to
help subdue any impacts if you`re outside for any part of the day.
Multiple shortwaves are depicted to migrate through the region at
this time but overall impacts are uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected through today and tonight with the
exception to any pop-up showers that may occur late this afternoon
and evening (21z to 03z). The showers are going to be diurnally
driven and dependent on reaching the convective temperature. Winds
will also be fairly light at 10-15 knots. After 00z winds will shift
from the north to the south. KBJI AWOS has not reported a METAR
since 0515z so ammend not sked will be issued in TAF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...MM