Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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867 FXUS62 KFFC 170249 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1049 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 1047 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Thunderstorms were a little slower to move through northeast Georgia. As they encountered more stable air they eventually fell apart, as of me writing this, the lightning is coming to an end. The front will continue through, and will act as a boundary for tomorrows thunderstorms, somewhere south of I-85. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Current satellite loop shows mostly fair weather CU across north and central GA with the incoming frontal boundary moving SE across western TN. This frontal boundary is very weak and is expected to fall apart as it pushes into the ATL area later tonight. The models show the front moving into NW GA around 00z them moving the next into the ATL area a few hours later. Mainly areas north of an ATL to AHN line will see some precipitation this evening/tonight but the boundary is expected to stall across central GA tonight. This will allow things to get fired up again Sat across the area before a second wave moves in and pushes everything south of the area through Mon. Right now there is a marginal chance of severe storms developing as this boundary moves into NW GA this evening but the latest model runs are showing this system weakening as it moves in. Would not be surprised to see an isolated severe storms or two but not expecting much organization with this system. The hi-res models have been fairly consistent with bringing a cluster of storms into NW GA right before 00Z and weakening them as they move into the ATL area through 04-08z. The main severe weather hazard should be damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes with any storms that develop. Additional storms are likely along and ahead of the front on Saturday, with timing a bit earlier than today. Lapse rates will remain weak, but surface instability remains plentiful. Strong storms continue possible, with an isolated severe thunderstorm not out of the question. 01 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 At a glance: - Cold front will keep storm chances in place Sunday - Cooler and drier conditions will follow through midweek Closed low over the Great Lakes will still dominate the weather pattern early in the extended, with associated cold front lingering across central Georgia. By Sunday morning, expect the boundary to lose its robustness, but as it slowly meanders south and east (and out of the area), could see diurnal influence driving some isolated isolated storms through Sunday afternoon. Northwest flow in the wake of the frontal passage will supply much cooler and drier conditions to the state. High pressure over the Southwest CONUS and longwave trough along the eastern seaboard will provide a channel for the cooler, continental airmass to funnel into the area. Aside from brief, lingering moisture as the Sunday weather exits, the remaining long term is PoP-free through Thursday. Crisp, `false fall` mornings can be expected as early as Tuesday morning with a return to lows in the 60s over much of the area, and 50s for the higher elevations. Slightly lower highs are also expected, but with temperatures still in the mid-80s to low 90s, the difference may not be as noticeable. For those interested, June 11 was the last time KATL had a low temperature in the mid 60s. 31 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 733 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A line of thunderstorms is moving southeast over northern GA. TSRA is expected to arrive at ATL between 01-05Z. These storms are gradually expected to weaken before they reach ATL so confidence on TSRA remains on the medium side. Winds out of the SW will gradually shift to NW over the course of the TAF cycle at less than 10kts. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium on WX High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 71 95 71 92 / 10 20 30 20 Atlanta 73 95 72 92 / 60 50 50 40 Blairsville 66 88 65 83 / 80 0 60 40 Cartersville 72 95 70 91 / 90 50 50 40 Columbus 75 96 74 96 / 10 50 40 40 Gainesville 72 94 71 89 / 70 10 50 20 Macon 71 94 72 94 / 0 50 40 30 Rome 72 94 71 90 / 90 40 60 50 Peachtree City 72 94 71 92 / 20 50 50 30 Vidalia 70 93 74 95 / 0 40 20 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....31 AVIATION...Vaughn