085
FXUS62 KFFC 141051
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
651 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 427 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Northwest flow aloft continues for the region as the ridge over the
central CONUS breaks down. Instability remains low however due to
weak moisture availability. PWATs will likely drop below 1.5"
through Thursday, thanks to low-mid level NNE flow along the trough
off the coast (enhanced in part by Ernesto) as well as a SFC high
over the northeast CONUS. Diurnal PoPs remain low through the period
and away from the metro for now. A few light showers may be possible
south of a line from MCN to CSG and east of AHN.

Temperatures will be pretty cool compared to what we`ve had so far
this summer. Highs will barely touch the 90s (I know so cold).
Dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s will help to keep conditions
"nicer".

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 427 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

At the start of the long term, trough will be digging into the
eastern US. We can be thankful for this trough, as it will be what
ultimately picks up TS Ernesto and pushes it well to the east of
Georgia. This upper level feature will stay with us for much of the
long term thanks to being squeezed between the ridge downstream
being pumped by latent heating from the tropical system and
amplifying subtropical ridge upstream over the central and SW CONUS.

Friday, our flow from the NE will likely get reinforced as the large
tropical system begins to pass to the east. This will keep drier air
in place over the CWA until later in the evening when the surface
low over the Great Lakes begins to crank up a bit and pull moisture
in from the Gulf ahead of a cold front. This front will slowly
approach the area by Saturday into Saturday night/Sunday morning,
where the best PoPs are now positioned, though the -exact- timing
remains to be seen, and differences can be gleaned through the
deterministic guidance in the Euro and GFS. These differences in
timing likely relate in large part to the positioning, size,
strength, etc of Ernesto, and won`t put much stock in the global
guidance getting all of those details right.

What guidance is pretty consistent on is moving the front through
the area either completely or through all put far east central
Georgia. This puts us in a similar situation to this week, with N to
NW flow and a drier air mass that will likely suppress most
diurnally driven convection. PoPs have come down a good bit as a
result of this. This change makes sense as guidance continues to
get a better handle overall on how Ernesto will impact the upper
level flow.

Highs will be in the upper 80s to 90s through the period. The only
day which looks to have potential for heat advisory concerns may be
Saturday, though the potential for cloud cover or rainfall may end
up limiting those impacts. Past then, with drier air filtering into
the area heat impacts will be limited overall.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

MVFR conditions across metro this morning with temporary IFR with
low CIGs. Otherwise VFR through the day today and tomorrow. Winds NW
at 5 to 10 kts today transition to NE and E tonight. Cigs dropping
remain possible tomorrow morning, however probability and confidence
is lower than this morning.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium Confidence Cigs this morning.
High all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  89  68  92 /  10   0   0  10
Atlanta         71  90  71  92 /  10  10   0  20
Blairsville     64  82  64  85 /  10  20  10  30
Cartersville    71  91  70  92 /   0  10   0  30
Columbus        74  93  72  95 /  10  20   0  10
Gainesville     69  88  69  91 /  10  10   0  20
Macon           71  91  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
Rome            70  91  71  92 /   0  20  10  40
Peachtree City  70  90  69  92 /  10  10   0  20
Vidalia         71  90  69  91 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...SM