458
FXUS62 KFFC 301816
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
216 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Key Messages:

-Scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening. More
widespread thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening

-Localized flash flooding and/or nuisance flooding may accompany
storms that develop. Frequent lightning and gusty winds will be
possible with any storm that develop.

-Hot and humid conditions to persist

As we`ve seen the past several mornings, patchy fog/mist and/or low-
level clouds will be possible along with scattered mid- and upper-
level clouds across much of North and Central Georgia. Use caution
if on the roadways this morning. Essentially a rinse and repeat
forecast is expected for today given little if any change to the
upper level pattern and the warm, moist airmass still in place
across the Southeast. Diurnally driven convection will be scattered
in nature and somewhat focused in areas where remnant outflows from
yesterday`s storms are present. As we approach Tuesday, a continued
slight uptick in PWs (near to slightly above 2") look plausible as a
trough begins to swing across portions of the Midwest/Great Lakes
Region and the subtropical high begins to broaden/flatten out over
the western Atlantic. This will bring a frontal boundary on our
doorstep sometime on Tuesday. Thus, our environment continues to
moisten over the Southeast and more widespread showers and storms
will once again be possible on Tuesday.

An isolated stronger storm will still remain a possibility each
afternoon given available instability on the order of 1500-2500
J/kg. But widespread severe weather is not expected. Frequent
lightning and heavy rainfall will accompany any storms that develop.
Localized flash flooding and nuisance flooding will also be possible
and need to be closely monitored especially if storms develop over
areas that have more recently received heavy rainfall. WPC still
maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for
portions of North and west-central GA both today and on Tuesday.

Forecast high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s
this afternoon (mid 70s to low 80s in the northeast mountains). High
temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees lower on Tuesday given
increased cloud cover and precip chances associated with the
approaching frontal boundary. Forecast morning lows remain mild with
values in the upper 60s to low 70s.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Key Messages:

  - Drier conditions looking more likely across north Georgia by
Thursday and into the weekend, while scattered diurnal thunderstorms
remain in central Georgia.

  - Afternoon highs near average will climb into the low 90s by the
end of the week and into the weekend.

An upper level trough will continue to move across the eastern CONUS
and towards the Atlantic coast as the long term period begins. On
Tuesday night, the trough axis will clear Georgia to the east. At
the surface, a cold front moving through the Tennessee Valley
region will advance towards far north Georgia. Ample moisture will
remain in place ahead of the front, with dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s and precipitable water values between 1.8 to 2.2 inches.
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the front,
although the coverage will be decreasing after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. A few of these storms could still be
capable of producing locally heavy rain, which could lead to
localized flooding concerns given the repeated rounds of storms
and saturated soils.

On Wednesday, the front will continue to advance southward through
the forecast area as northwesterly flow sets up behind the trough
axis. Model guidance continues to trend towards more amplification
of the trough, which will help it build further southeast and
advance the front further south through Georgia. Relatively drier
air, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, will build into north
Georgia ahead of the front. Likely PoPs are forecast on Wednesday to
the south of the front, in portions of central and east-central
Georgia, with progressively lower chances to the north. In addition
to drier air at the surface, warmer air building in at the mid-
levels should serve to limit thunderstorm chances to 20 percent or
less across north Georgia from Thursday into the weekend. In central
Georgia, thunderstorms will be diurnally-driven over this timeframe,
with PoPs forecast to be between 30-40 percent at the most.

High temperatures on Wednesday will largely be in the upper 80s
across the area. Then, with decreased cloud cover and lower rain
chances, highs will rise into the low 90s on Thursday and into the
weekend. As the front sinks southward into the Gulf this weekend, it
is possible that a surface could develop in the baroclinic zone in
the vicinity of the front, which could then tap into the warm sea
surface temperatures. The NHC has maintained a 20 percent chance of
tropical development over the next 7 days along the eastern Gulf
coast and southern Atlantic coast as a result. While impacts to
north and central Georgia look unlikely at this time, the potential
for tropical development will need to be watched closely as the week
goes on.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Cu field ~3-4kft is in place across the area with isolated chances
for TSRA this afternoon from 20-24z as the best timing. Expecting
low cloud development again tomorrow morning at ~600 ft before
lifting through tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon into evening,
better chance for TSRA as a cold front approaches the area. Best
timing is 20-02z with the potential as early as 18z.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on all elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  87  70  88 /  30  60  60  40
Atlanta         72  87  71  88 /  40  70  70  30
Blairsville     65  82  65  85 /  50  80  70  30
Cartersville    71  87  70  89 /  40  70  60  20
Columbus        71  88  72  89 /  40  50  30  40
Gainesville     72  86  70  87 /  40  80  70  30
Macon           71  87  72  88 /  40  50  50  50
Rome            71  87  70  90 /  30  80  60  20
Peachtree City  70  87  70  88 /  40  60  60  30
Vidalia         72  88  73  87 /  30  50  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Hernandez