206
FXUS62 KFFC 181735
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

A weak frontal boundary currently stretches from the central Great
Lakes back through the Mid Mississippi River Valley. An old
outflow/pre-frontal trough has settled around or just south of the
Interstate 20 corridor. The pre-frontal trough should be the main
weather player for today, but cannot rule out some isold convection
along the actual frontal boundary late this afternoon and evening.

Isolated early morning convection should diminish before sunrise.
The boundary left behind from this convection should be the primary
focus for any afternoon/evening storms today. The pre-frontal
trough/outflow boundary is hard to find within the surface pressure
and wind field, but is a bit more discernible within the dewpoint
field - there is a bit more of a gradient. The boundary should be
located mainly between the Interstate 20 corridor and a MCN-CSG
line. The higher res models have been performing fairly decently
with placement and timing of afternoon storms the last few days, and
will stick with current trends.

Storm environment will have a little more shear to work with today
versus the last couple of days, especially in the southern CWA.
Moisture and surface convergence will also be favored in this area.
Strong storms will be likely once again, with a little better
potential than previous days for severe storm development. Some
isolated convection may be possible with the front, but the
strongest convection should remain across the south.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

At a glance:

    - Mostly dry

    - Crisp mornings

Moving into Tuesday and the start of the extended, the key player in
our sensible weather through late week will be a constant stream of
cooler, drier air at the mid-levels -- fed by northwesterly flow on
the lee side of high amplitude ridging across the Desert Southwest.
On top of that, the southern fringes of a surface high centered over
the Great Lakes look to extend southward to the Gulf coast, locking
into place a relatively benign airmass. Backward trajectories show
that the aforementioned airmass settling across Georgia and much of
the Southeast originates from across central/eastern Canada. As a
result, and most excitingly, expect crisp mornings -- especially
across north Georgia -- through the long term, with lows each night
forecast to drop into the upper 50s to 60s. Afternoon highs will
similarly fall on the cooler side, though only marginally so, in the
mid-80s to lower-90s each day.

Rain chances will be minimal to negligible through Wednesday. From
then on, our surface high begins to retrograde northward, and a
weakness in mid-level flow develops in response to ridging shifting
slightly eastward aloft. With dry, northwesterly flow weakening, low
end chances for showers and thunderstorms will reintroduce
themselves across primarily south central Georgia to round off
the work week and kick off the weekend -- rainfall totals are
likely to be sub-0.25" where storms do form.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

IFR and LIFR stuck around long enough to limit the TS chances this
afternoon for the metro sites. Can`t rule out an isolated TS but
that is a very low chance. The cu field should dissipate into the
evening as winds turn NW overnight and only high cirrus
remains.Could see some low end gusts this afternoon and evening
up to 15-20kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on TS chances.
High on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  89  66  88 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         69  87  67  87 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     62  80  55  80 /  10  10   0   0
Cartersville    66  86  62  85 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        71  92  69  92 /  50   0   0   0
Gainesville     67  87  64  87 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           69  90  68  90 /  40   0   0   0
Rome            68  86  63  85 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  67  87  64  87 /  20   0   0   0
Vidalia         72  92  71  90 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Hernandez