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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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206 FXUS62 KFFC 181735 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 135 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 A weak frontal boundary currently stretches from the central Great Lakes back through the Mid Mississippi River Valley. An old outflow/pre-frontal trough has settled around or just south of the Interstate 20 corridor. The pre-frontal trough should be the main weather player for today, but cannot rule out some isold convection along the actual frontal boundary late this afternoon and evening. Isolated early morning convection should diminish before sunrise. The boundary left behind from this convection should be the primary focus for any afternoon/evening storms today. The pre-frontal trough/outflow boundary is hard to find within the surface pressure and wind field, but is a bit more discernible within the dewpoint field - there is a bit more of a gradient. The boundary should be located mainly between the Interstate 20 corridor and a MCN-CSG line. The higher res models have been performing fairly decently with placement and timing of afternoon storms the last few days, and will stick with current trends. Storm environment will have a little more shear to work with today versus the last couple of days, especially in the southern CWA. Moisture and surface convergence will also be favored in this area. Strong storms will be likely once again, with a little better potential than previous days for severe storm development. Some isolated convection may be possible with the front, but the strongest convection should remain across the south. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 At a glance: - Mostly dry - Crisp mornings Moving into Tuesday and the start of the extended, the key player in our sensible weather through late week will be a constant stream of cooler, drier air at the mid-levels -- fed by northwesterly flow on the lee side of high amplitude ridging across the Desert Southwest. On top of that, the southern fringes of a surface high centered over the Great Lakes look to extend southward to the Gulf coast, locking into place a relatively benign airmass. Backward trajectories show that the aforementioned airmass settling across Georgia and much of the Southeast originates from across central/eastern Canada. As a result, and most excitingly, expect crisp mornings -- especially across north Georgia -- through the long term, with lows each night forecast to drop into the upper 50s to 60s. Afternoon highs will similarly fall on the cooler side, though only marginally so, in the mid-80s to lower-90s each day. Rain chances will be minimal to negligible through Wednesday. From then on, our surface high begins to retrograde northward, and a weakness in mid-level flow develops in response to ridging shifting slightly eastward aloft. With dry, northwesterly flow weakening, low end chances for showers and thunderstorms will reintroduce themselves across primarily south central Georgia to round off the work week and kick off the weekend -- rainfall totals are likely to be sub-0.25" where storms do form. 96 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 IFR and LIFR stuck around long enough to limit the TS chances this afternoon for the metro sites. Can`t rule out an isolated TS but that is a very low chance. The cu field should dissipate into the evening as winds turn NW overnight and only high cirrus remains.Could see some low end gusts this afternoon and evening up to 15-20kts. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium on TS chances. High on all other elements. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 68 89 66 88 / 10 0 0 0 Atlanta 69 87 67 87 / 10 0 0 0 Blairsville 62 80 55 80 / 10 10 0 0 Cartersville 66 86 62 85 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 71 92 69 92 / 50 0 0 0 Gainesville 67 87 64 87 / 10 0 0 0 Macon 69 90 68 90 / 40 0 0 0 Rome 68 86 63 85 / 10 0 0 0 Peachtree City 67 87 64 87 / 20 0 0 0 Vidalia 72 92 71 90 / 50 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....96 AVIATION...Hernandez