658
FXUS62 KFFC 022342
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
742 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Key Messages:

  - Afternoon thunderstorms will be confined primarily to
    locations along and south of I-85. Severe weather not
    anticipated, but a strong storm or two is possible in central
    Georgia.

  - A bit of a respite tomorrow, with only low chances of storms in
    eastern portions of central Georgia.

  - Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices in the mid
    to upper 90s across the area today and tomorrow.

Forecast:

Compared to some of the previous days, we finally have a relatively
tame forecast on store for the short term. Satellite Day Cloud Phase
Distinction shows broad cu field across central Georgia that is
showing some signs of glaciation. A few updrafts have started to
poke through the cap into the upper levels along the far eastern
edges of the CWA and across the border in AL, and expectation is
this should spread into central Georgia during the afternoon hours.
PoP chances remain elevated in central Georgia as moisture is pooled
ahead of the mostly stalled front currently sitting approximately
along the I-85 corridor. Behind that front, skies have mostly
cleared outside a few cu, and the expectation is that they will
remain that way for the next 36 hours. The one exception to this may
be areas to the south of the mountains of NE GA, where a few storms
may wander into the area thanks to moisture remaining a bit more
pooled up against the mountains. These storms are expected to remain
mostly below severe limits, but a strong storm or two is possible.

Aloft, the trough that brought the front initially into the area
has progressed out into the Atlantic. Tomorrow, another shortwave
trough will follow in its wake across the Northeast. Tonight the
cold front will continue to progress further south, and will be
reinforced by the trough moving across the Northeast. This will
keep most of the area dry tomorrow, with the exception of east
central Georgia where a few isolated storms will be possible.
Severe weather is not anticipated.

Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows
tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tomorrow, relatively
drier air will filter in and bring temps to the upper 90s across
much the area. Heat indices will range from the lower 90s in the
north to upper 90s in central Georgia each day.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Key Messages:

    - Rain chances decrease through Saturday while temps rise
      through the weekend.

    - Uncertainty remains for early next week but rain chances
      begin increasing Sunday into the mid week.

Discussion:

Long term starts off with an an amplified ridge to our west over the
MS valley and troughing just off the atlantic coast into Florida
with a frontal boundary draped south of Georgia. Overall dry air
behind the front and being in between these two features will lead
to limited rain chances for much of the area (15% or less) through
Saturday. Areas south of a line from Columbus to Macon to Augusta
should see rain chances closer to 20-35% due to seabreeze
activity/the frontal boundary lingering just south of the area.
Sunday is when the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain and it is
all to do with the area of low pressure expected to form that NHC
now has a 40% chance for development on. Model to model run has
begun to come into better agreement over where this low will meander
but overall still uncertainty remains. Many of the models are
favoring the low pushing along the Atlantic coast which would lead
to a drier start to the weekend as we would be on the dry side of
this area, but there are still a few models trying to indicate that
the area of low pressure could push into southern Georgia/SC Peak
intensity for any of these model solutions are low end so not
expecting really any impacts but if it takes a slightly more
westerly track could see rain chances extend further into the area.
HAve elected to keep rain chances ~30-40% for the area to account
for this solution.

Into the middle part of the week the pattern looks to change on the
upper levels as a trough approaches from the west into Wednesday
dragging with it a frontal boundary. Rain chances are increased on
Wednesday to account for this but ultimately could see this change
up if timing becomes later. Heat indices through the long term look
to top out at the mid 90s by Saturday before decreasing to the upper
80s to low 90s until Wednesday when temps increase again and
moisture returns.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR through the TAF period. Winds will start out NW at 5-10kts with
gusts as high as 15kts for the rest of the evening before gradually
easing to 5kts or less after 06Z. After 14Z, winds are expected to
go due north until Friday morning. While winds will be light during
this period, there will be a period of uncertainty as winds shift
from the NW to the NE and back again before settling NE late Friday
morning.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium wind shift timing.
High on all other elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  92  72  93 /  10  10   0  10
Atlanta         72  92  74  93 /   0  10   0  10
Blairsville     62  86  64  88 /   0  10   0  20
Cartersville    67  92  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        70  94  74  95 /   0  10   0  20
Gainesville     70  91  72  91 /  10  10   0  10
Macon           71  93  72  94 /  20  10   0  20
Rome            68  91  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  68  92  71  93 /   0  10   0  10
Vidalia         72  91  74  93 /  50  30  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Vaughn