629
FXUS64 KEWX 161140 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
640 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Clear skies are in place across most of south central Texas this
morning. The exception is across portions of the Rio Grande plains
south of Eagle Pass where some high clouds are noted. Some brief low
clouds may develop along and east of the I-35 corridor this morning,
but most areas can expect mostly sunny skies today. High
temperatures will range from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees as
south to southeast winds remain gusty this afternoon. On Wednesday,
the overall weather pattern will not change much. Expect another day
of highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. We did add a mention of
showers and thunderstorms to the forecast for the coastal plains
Wednesday afternoon, with a dry forecast intact elsewhere. A few
spots along and east of the I-35 corridor may see some brief heat
index values near 107 degrees today and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

An upper level low moving across the Great Lakes into Thursday will
help to carve out a more pronounced trough axis across the Ozarks
through east Texas during the second half of this week and into this
upcoming weekend. The upper level ridge also slides to the west
becoming centered across the western CONUS into the Pacific
Northwest. A surface front advances southward into Central Texas from
Thursday into Friday and could possibly slip into our region pending
outflow. The boundary along with the advection of some higher PWATs
helps to provide the focus for returning shower and thunderstorm
chances. While the front does look to lift northward and/or fizzle
out entering the weekend, the higher PWAT values linger and help to
promote at least continued daily lower end (20 to 30%) chances for
showers and storms this weekend. Medium range guidance, including a
signal within the ensemble means, show the possibility of a secondary
front or at least another southerly push of the original boundary
southwards towards Central Texas into the start of next week. This
combined with an influx of even higher PWATS may yield to some
better rain and storm chances entering early next week. As seen last
week, a weak steering flow aloft could result in slow storm motions
and some potential for isolated pockets of locally heavy rainfall.
With the returning cloud cover and moisture, expect for daytime
highs along with the overnight lows to gradually lower to near and
even below seasonal average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

We have made some minor changes to the expected low clouds and MVFR
this morning along the I-35 corridor. Overall, any MVFR should be
brief and will limit to TEMPO groups through 15Z. Otherwise, look for
VFR to return by late morning and continue through the evening hours.
Gusty south to southeast winds can also be expected through most of
the daytime hours. Low cloud development remains possible once again
Wednesday morning and will include a mention of SCT low clouds after
10Z for the I-35 sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             101  77 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  99  75  99  75 /   0   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     98  76  98  75 /   0   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            99  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  79 102  79 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  75 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  74  97  74 /   0   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   97  76  95  75 /   0   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  77  98  76 /   0   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  77  98  76 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...Platt