238
FXUS64 KEWX 171120
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
620 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The mid-level ridging centered across the Four Corners will slowly
shift towards the west-northwest during the short term period. This
results in a more northerly flow to establish aloft and this helps to
advance a weak cold front and any residual convection and/or outflow
southward through North Texas then Central Texas later today into
tonight. The boundary or at least residual outflows then look to
enter portions of our CWA late tonight into Thursday. Given the
latest model guidance, including the HREF members, have elected to
push up the timing on initial rain and storm chances to start
overnight into Thursday morning across the northern portions of our
area. The front and any associated outflow continues to slip
southward during Thursday and should provide scattered coverage of
rain and storms across the region with daytime heating. Cells could
become slow moving at times and may produce isolated spots of locally
heavier downpours and gusty winds.

The rain chances through this afternoon remain rather slim but a
stray to isolated shower may enter the coastal plains with the sea
breeze or adventure into our far northern Hill Country early this
evening with any outflows that may advance far out ahead of the
front. The temperatures for this afternoon are likely to trend of the
hottest the rest of the week with highs into the mid to upper 90s
with isolated locations eclipsing 100 degrees. The peak heat indices
trend slightly higher with values in the 103 to 107 range near and
east of the I-35 corridor. Tonight will trend warm with increasing
clouds and overnight lows that run similar to the past few nights.
Thursday afternoon should be able to shave off at least a couple of
degrees across most locations within the area outside from perhaps
the Rio Grande thanks to the increased moisture and cloud cover with
the influence from the weak front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

With convection expected Thursday, the above mentioned cold front
will continue to slowly sag southward into the region Thursday
night. Some additional convection may develop along the boundary,
but with daytime heating on the decline, We will keep rain chances
low Thursday night. On Friday, the remnant frontal boundary along
with some weak upper level disturbances embedded in northnorthwest
flow aloft should result in some additional rain chances. Rain
chances will be higher near the remnants of the front and this
should place the better opportunity in the coastal plains region.
Temperatures should also trend downward on Friday given rain chances
and increased cloud cover. Most areas should see highs in the 90s,
perhaps some upper 80s in the higher terrain of the Hill Country and
southern Edwards Plateau.

For the upcoming weekend and into early next week, an upper trough
axis will gradually build southward into the southern U.S. plains.
We will keep rain chances fairly low on Saturday and generally
confined to the peak heating hours in the afternoon and early
evening. On Sunday into Monday, the medium range models show another
cold front possibly dropping southward through north Texas into south
central Texas. The southward push of this boundary will largely be
driven by the amount of convection that develops along and behind of
this feature. For now, it appears rain chances will be on the increase
Sunday afternoon and evening as models show some weak upper level
disturbances moving in from the north. Currently, the models tend to
favor the cold front moving in sometime late Sunday afternoon into
Monday. We should see at least scattered convection develop during
this period along with temperatures remaining below normal. Timing
and placement of where any of the heavier precipitation may fall
remains problematic this far in advance. However, pattern recognition
tends to favor locally heavy rains over the southern Edwards Plateau
into the Hill Country. Upper level troughing remains intact through
Tuesday leading to additional rain chances along with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

An area of low clouds with MVFR ceilings has developed overnight
from the Hill Country to around KSAT. KSSF may see a brief period
with MVFR ceilings. Otherwise, expect for VFR flight conditions to
return at all sites by mid to late morning with mainly fair weather
cumulus and gradually increasing high level cloud cover from the
north. A weak front approaches the region from the overnight into
Thursday morning. This front will be a focal point for some shower
and thunderstorm activity late tonight into Thursday morning at the
end of the 30 hour TAFs at KAUS and KSAT. Elected to keep VCSH and
add a PROB30 group at KAUS and a VCSH mention at KSAT in regards
to this potential. Pending the location of the front and any
outflow, winds could turn northerly and/or northerly at KAUS and
KSAT late in the period. Elsewhere, winds will remain south to
southeasterly near or below 10 knots.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  77  96  74 /   0  20  40  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  98  76  95  74 /   0  20  40  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     98  76  95  74 /   0  10  40  20
Burnet Muni Airport            98  75  93  72 /  10  20  50  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  80 100  78 /   0  10  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        98  76  93  73 /  10  20  40  20
Hondo Muni Airport             98  75  96  74 /   0  10  30  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  75  94  73 /   0  10  30  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   97  76  94  74 /  10  10  30  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  77  96  76 /   0  10  40  20
Stinson Muni Airport           99  77  97  76 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...Brady