722
FXUS64 KEWX 191753
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1253 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A cluster of thunderstorm activity had advanced southward into
portions of Williamson Lee Counties in association with an
outflow boundary. This activity is leading to some locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds. This activity will probably wane some
over the next few hours but isolated activity remains possible
through the overnight into the morning for the locations that are
immediately south of the current cluster of storms and to the east
of I-35. The focus for spotty isolated showers and perhaps a
storm cell or two this afternoon will then shift to cover
generally from the San Antonio metro region and points southward
nearer the location of the weak front/residual outflow boundaries
and in the region where the greatest moisture resides with the
PWATS around or in excess of 1.75 inches. Elsewhere, this
afternoon should trend partly cloudy and rain free.

Any isolated activity should wane after dark with the loss of
daytime heating. Additionally, the weak front looks to lift back
northward from the overnight into Saturday, with the wind flow
across the region becoming more east-southeast then southeasterly
in direction. This should help to result in Saturday trending as
the driest day of the week over the area under mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies. Saturday will trend as the warmest day as
well with highs running a degree or two higher compared to this
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Mainly dry conditions expected Saturday night into Sunday, although
a rouge shower or thunderstorm may be possible over the coastal
plains through the evening. From Sunday through the rest of the
period, a wetter and cooler pattern looks to take effect across
South Central Texas.

A slow moving trough shifts slightly further south into the Central
Plains on Sunday and Monday bringing a stalled front into north
Texas. This boundary along with a passing upper level shortwave
looks to drive precipitation chances across most of South Central
Texas by Sunday afternoon. Precipitation chances remain overnight
into Monday, mainly for the northern half of the area. These chances
overspread all of the area Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave moves
across Central Texas. Increasing PWATS from 1.5 to over 2 inches are
seen during this time which may lead to periods of heavy rain across
the area. WPC has a level 2 of 4 risk for excessive rain across the
northern two thirds of the area Monday morning into Tuesday morning
to account for this potential. Models indicate the active pattern
continues mid to late week with precipitation chances seen each day.

With the more active pattern comes increased cloud cover and cooler
temperatures in the forecast. Seasonable highs are expected Sunday
from the low 90s to around 100 degrees cooling to the mid 80s to low
90s each day Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

There is a frontal boundary nearby the San Antonio airports and
helping to generate isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Most of the activity is forecast to concentrate to the
south of KSSF this afternoon. However, can`t rule out a shower or two
that affect that terminals before 18Z today. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are forecast for the local area terminals through the period with a
northeast to east wind flow for the I-35 corridor sites through late
this afternoon and then shifting to the east and southeast in the
evening through Saturday. DRT stays from the east through Saturday
morning before shifting more to the southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  96  74  96 /   0  10   0  20
Burnet Muni Airport            72  96  74  94 /   0  10   0  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 101  79 101 /  10   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  96  73  94 /   0   0   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             74  97  74  96 /   0  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  96  73  95 /   0  10   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  95  74  93 /  10  10   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  97  76  96 /   0  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           76  98  76  97 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...76
Aviation...17