Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
260
FNUS74 KEPZ 021631
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Feeley Piles RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1031 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 MDT on July 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
There will be a good chance for thunderstorms and associated
strong gusty winds this afternoon and evening. Min RH`s today will
be in the 40`s and we will have good RH recoveries at night. On
Wednesday we will again see a chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms and associated gusty winds. Ventilation rates today
and tomorrow will be fair to poor.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms likely late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4 until 1500, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......7300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (50600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
Sky (%).........11 20 47 47
Weather cov.....NONE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).10 40 60 60
LAL.............1 4 5 5
Temp............79 82 82 80
RH..............52 46 44 47
20 ft wind......W 6 SW 8 SW 9 SW 9
20 ft wind gust.9 14 15 15
Mix hgt (ft)....6900 6900 7300 7300
Transport wind..W 9 W 9 W 10 W 10
Haines index....3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..52 52 51 51
Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR FAIR FAIR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 7 mph shifting to the
northeast around 5 mph in the late evening and
overnight, then becoming light after 3 am.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 12 mph shifting to the
northeast around 10 mph in the late evening and
overnight, then shifting to the southeast
around 8 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........67 67 65 62 62 61
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).50 50 20 10 10 10
LAL.............4 4 3 1 1 1
Temp............78 73 69 67 66 64
RH..............50 62 70 75 78 84
20 ft wind......NW 7 NW 7 NE 5 NE 5 NE 5 E 3
20 ft wind gust.14 14 7 7 7 6
Mix hgt (ft)....3800 3800 1000 1000 600 600
Transport wind..NW 12 NW 12 NE 10 NE 10 SE 8 SE 8
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..38 38 5 5 4 4
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
showers and thunderstorms likely in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0900, then 3 until 1200, then 4 until
1500, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the
late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the late
morning and early afternoon.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........53 37 45 54
Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE S CHC CHANCE LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 60 60
LAL.............1 3 5 5
Temp............64 73 79 81
RH..............81 64 50 46
20 FT wind......NE 3G5 NW 5G12 W 8G14 W 8G14
Mix hgt (ft)....1300 1300 5200 4900
Transport wind..NW 7 NW 7 NW 8 NW 9
Haines index....2 2 2 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 8 37 37
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Northwest winds around 6 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. Northeast winds around
8 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 60s. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds around 9 mph.
$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2417204.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov