517
FXUS64 KEPZ 192315
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
515 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A wet and active weather pattern will continue across southern New
Mexico and far west Texas through the weekend and into next week.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will occur each day with
periods of heavy rain and a potential for flash flooding as the
main impact on the region. The wet weather pattern will result in
day time temperatures running from near seasonal normals to
several degrees below normal through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The active wet weather pattern will continue across the region
this weekend into next week. Abundant atmospheric moisture remains
in the region with precipitable water values running above normal
with values of 1.1 to 1.4 inches. The increased moisture will
result in showers and thunderstorms that will be efficient rain
producers with periods of heavy rainfall possible, especially
tonight and this weekend. Impulses embedded in northerly flow
between a dome of high pressure over Nevada and a deepening trough
in the plains states will move south over New Mexico and enhance
thunderstorms development in the moist and unstable air mass that
exists in the region. A flash flood watch remains in effect for
the Sacramento Mountains of Otero county for this afternoon and
tonight. Recent burn scars remain sensitive to even modest amounts
of rain that could lead to flash flooding in the affected areas.

For Saturday and Sunday, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the mountains by mid day and
spread into the lowlands by mid afternoon and will continue
overnight. Model probabilities indicate areas receiving between 1
and 2 inches as an average mean value with a maximum potential for
3 to 5 inch amounts possible. Mountain zones will see the higher
rain amounts with flash flooding possible. A Flash Flood watch
will be in effect for the Sacramento Mountains and the mountains
of the Gila Region for Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Heavy rains will cause flooding along drainages and small streams
with impacts to low water crossings expected. The lowlands may
also see some heavy rain events with localized flooding but it
will be less frequent than in the mountains.

The outlook for next week indicates a modest drop in atmospheric
moisture, closer to seasonal (monsoonal) averages. However, the
general synoptic pattern of impulses dropping south over New
Mexico and enhancing storm development will continue well into
next week with a chance of showers and thunderstorms possible each
afternoon and evening next week. The somewhat lower moisture
levels may reduce the heavy rain impact a little, but there will
also be other impacts from these storms including periods of small
hail and strong wind gusts with blowing dust for dust prone areas
of the lowland deserts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Odds are better that TAF sites will remain clear of TS tonight and
Saturday morning. Lingering outflow may result in low-end surface
gusts before midnight tonight, otherwise minimal direct impacts.
Surface winds generally AOB 10 knots overnight with skies SCT-
BKN250. Higher storm coverage Saturday afternoon, so expect the
inclusion of TS mention next forecast cycle. Best chances for
direct impacts between 21-03Z tomorrow, with IFR VIS and gusty
outflow winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Low fire weather concerns with a moist active weather pattern
bringing wetting rains and thunderstorms to the entire region
into next week. Mountain zones will see the highest rain amounts
with flooding possible along creeks and streams. Recent burn scars
will be particularly sensitive to any rainfall with flooding
likely, even with moderate amounts of rain. Min RH values will be
in the 20s across the lowlands with 30s to 50 percentiles in the
the mountains. Winds will remain light from the southeast except
near thunderstorms. Vent rates during the day will be good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77  99  76  92 /  20  50  80  60
Sierra Blanca            67  91  69  86 /  10  50  50  60
Las Cruces               72  99  71  91 /  30  60 100  60
Alamogordo               68  95  66  87 /  30  70  80  70
Cloudcroft               51  71  48  63 /  30  90  90  90
Truth or Consequences    70  95  68  86 /  40  80  90  80
Silver City              66  89  63  84 /  60  90  80  90
Deming                   71  98  70  91 /  50  70  90  60
Lordsburg                72  97  70  93 /  60  90  90  80
West El Paso Metro       77  98  74  91 /  20  60  80  60
Dell City                70  95  71  88 /  10  60  40  60
Fort Hancock             72  99  73  94 /  20  40  50  60
Loma Linda               70  89  69  84 /  20  60  70  70
Fabens                   74  98  74  92 /  20  50  60  60
Santa Teresa             73  97  71  89 /  30  60  80  60
White Sands HQ           74  97  71  88 /  30  70  90  70
Jornada Range            70  97  68  89 /  40  70  90  70
Hatch                    70  99  69  91 /  40  80  90  70
Columbus                 74  98  73  92 /  40  50  90  60
Orogrande                70  94  68  86 /  20  60  80  70
Mayhill                  56  81  54  72 /  20  90  70  90
Mescalero                57  82  53  74 /  40  90  80  90
Timberon                 54  79  53  73 /  20  80  70  80
Winston                  58  86  57  79 /  60 100  90  90
Hillsboro                67  93  65  86 /  70  90  90  90
Spaceport                67  95  65  88 /  40  80  90  80
Lake Roberts             61  89  58  83 /  70 100  80  90
Hurley                   66  92  64  86 /  50 100  80  90
Cliff                    66  99  64  94 /  60 100  80  90
Mule Creek               67  93  66  89 /  60  90  80  90
Faywood                  67  92  66  86 /  60  80  90  90
Animas                   72  99  71  93 /  60  90  90  80
Hachita                  70  97  69  92 /  50  80  90  70
Antelope Wells           70  96  69  91 /  50  70  90  80
Cloverdale               68  91  66  87 /  50  80  90  80

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
     for NMZ401-403-408-414>416-425-426.

     Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ414>416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt