![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
820 FXUS64 KEPZ 161031 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 431 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 431 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Upper high over New Mexico will keep much of the area in drier air again today. There will still be a chance of thunderstorms, mainly west of the Continental Divide. The upper high begins moving westward after Tuesday, near the Four Corners Wednesday. This allow a few thunderstorms to move back in over much of the area. Then Thursday into the weekend, the moisture rapidly returns and by the weekend we can expect widespread thunderstorms and possibility of flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 431 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Today and Wednesday...WV imagery shows upper high still mainly over New Mexico. Layered moisture surrounding most of the high circulation except the eastern quadrant, where the dry slot is still in place over most of the CWA. Doesn`t look like much change for today. NSSL Synthetic satellite imagery shows layered moisture staying mostly where it is now; hence I think chances of thunderstorms are best west of the Cont Divide. I did trim back NBM POPs somewhat for this afternoon to reflect that. Big changes are coming as the upper high begins slowly drifting west. For Wednesday the upper high is over the Four Corners. This does allow some moisture aloft to begin moving in, while still offering some capping at mid-levels. POPs should begin increasing some area wide. Thursday into the weekend...upper high moves over Arizona Thursday and the upper over Nevada for the weekend. This will give us a stronger northerly flow aloft. Expect thunderstorms into the scattered to numerous coverage for all areas through this period. Typically the storms begin in the mountains early afternoon and spread southward over the lowlands, often with strong outflow. GFS PWs increase to 1.0 to 1.3 inches during this period, possibly even higher on Saturday before decreasing some on Sunday. The main threat throughout this period will be flooding. Severe winds also a large threat with large hail likely a secondary threat. Monday and Tuesday...upper high slides down closer to southern California, keeping northerly flow over the CWA. PWs lower some, but for the most part these days likely a continuation from the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected across all of the TAF sites through the period. Skies will range from SKC to FEW180-220, with some clouds west of a KDMN-KTCS line, and SKC east of that line. AFT 18Z expect skies to be SKC-FEW110, with some convective cloud development west of the KDMN-KTCS line. Winds will be generally AOB10 KTS and range from 150-240. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 431 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 We are in a stretch of dry weather, likely to continue most zones again today. However we begin transitioning Wednesday and especially toward the weekend, to a much wetter overall pattern. Thunderstorm coverage should increase dramatically by Thursday and Friday and flooding will become a major threat all areas. Strong winds also a real threat. Min RHs: Lowlands 12-18% today increasing to 20-30% Wednesday into the weekend. Mountains 15-25% today increasing to 35-50% Wednesday into the weekend. Vent rates very good-excellent today and Wednesday, becoming fair-good by Friday into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 103 78 102 77 / 10 10 20 30 Sierra Blanca 94 70 95 66 / 10 10 20 20 Las Cruces 103 73 102 72 / 10 10 30 50 Alamogordo 100 70 98 67 / 10 10 30 40 Cloudcroft 83 51 80 49 / 10 10 50 50 Truth or Consequences 101 73 99 69 / 10 20 40 70 Silver City 93 65 95 62 / 30 30 60 70 Deming 102 70 101 71 / 20 20 30 60 Lordsburg 99 70 101 71 / 40 40 50 70 West El Paso Metro 101 77 101 76 / 10 10 20 40 Dell City 100 71 100 70 / 0 0 20 20 Fort Hancock 101 73 102 71 / 10 10 20 30 Loma Linda 94 70 94 68 / 0 10 30 30 Fabens 101 75 102 74 / 0 10 20 30 Santa Teresa 100 72 100 72 / 10 10 20 50 White Sands HQ 100 76 100 73 / 10 10 40 50 Jornada Range 101 71 100 69 / 10 10 40 60 Hatch 103 71 102 70 / 10 10 40 60 Columbus 101 72 101 74 / 10 20 30 60 Orogrande 98 71 97 69 / 10 10 30 40 Mayhill 92 57 87 55 / 10 10 50 40 Mescalero 92 57 88 55 / 10 10 50 50 Timberon 89 55 86 54 / 10 10 50 40 Winston 94 60 92 57 / 30 20 60 70 Hillsboro 98 70 97 65 / 20 20 50 80 Spaceport 101 69 99 66 / 10 10 40 60 Lake Roberts 95 60 94 59 / 40 30 60 70 Hurley 97 64 97 64 / 30 30 50 60 Cliff 100 67 99 67 / 30 40 60 70 Mule Creek 96 65 97 64 / 40 40 60 70 Faywood 97 68 96 66 / 30 30 50 70 Animas 99 69 101 70 / 40 40 50 70 Hachita 99 68 100 70 / 40 40 30 60 Antelope Wells 96 67 98 68 / 40 40 50 70 Cloverdale 90 64 93 66 / 40 50 50 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner