458
FXUS64 KEPZ 180534
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1134 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Increasing moisture, precipitation and cooler temperatures will
spread across the Borderland over the next few days. A daily
chance for thunderstorms areawide starts up by Friday with locally
heavy rain and gusty winds being the main threat. Some areas,
especially in the mountains will see several inches of rain by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A stable, blocking type pattern setting up for much of the country
over the next few days with strong upper high moving into the
Great Basin and a SW-NE oriented trough extending from the Great
Lakes down through KS and having some effect down into southern
NM. This brings a return to a northerly flow across the area
similar to what we had last week. The main difference is that
unlike last week when there was very little moisture in the mid
levels, there is a noticeable moisture pool sitting up in CO that
will be moving south into the region as flow shifts that way.
The added moisture combined with that trough lingering off to the
east will bring better rain chances to the area.

Tonight expect initial convection to be over far northern areas to
start, but as a cold front moves south, moisture starts to
increase and there will be some elevated instability allowing for
storms to develop along boundary. Models seem to kill off most
convection by the time they reach the I-10 corridor and that
doesn`t seem unreasonable. Winds behind the front will pick up for
the TCS-DMN corridor and western mountain slopes. Could see 15-25
mph winds with gusts over 35 mph for a period between 06Z-15Z. For
Thursday, PW`s will be up into the 1.10-1.25" range for the CWA
and a disturbance dropping down east side of ridge. Typical type
of July day expected with storms forming on the mountains and
moving off late afternoon into the evening hours. A weakness in
the mid level flow under slightly stronger low level SE winds will
again support training/back building storms like they did last
week, especially over the Sacs. Will issue a Flood Watch for the
Sacs from 18Z Thu-12Z Fri. Temperatures will be cooler with mainly
lower to mid 90s for highs over the lowlands.

Fri-Sun, similar setup across the area, but PW`s come up more into
the 1.25-1.4" range allowing for daily storm development. The
operational GFS has Fri as a down day, looks like due to remnant
cloud cover from Thu convection and limited heating for much of
the day. Ensemble mean and EC are more aggressive though, and
will not lower much from what we had going. Sat and Sun do look
like most widespread precip coverage as a more significant wave
drops around the trough to the NE. Storm motion looks fairly slow,
under 10KTS, and still a hint of more training/back building.
Expect with rains over Thu and Fri, will likely need a Flood Watch
going into the weekend for much of the area. Temperatures during
this time look to cool down and may struggle to get out of the
lower 90s.

A little drier air moves in early next week, but still at least
average PW`s for this time of the year with continued northerly
flow. Will keep fairly high pops going for the mountains in the
60-70% range and chance over the lowlands. Both EC and GFS showing
a fairly cool day somewhere in the Mon/Tue timeframe where highs
may stay in the lower to mid 80s, but again it is tough to figure
these days out this far and with ensemble means still supporting
at least mid 80s to lower 90s. NBM seems high, but MEX guidance of
84 at KELP on Mon looks like it could be too cool.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Thunderstorm outflow from central NM shifting winds to the northeast
overnight, causing gusts to 30-40 knots and isolated showers
through 10Z. ESE flow expected to resume by sunrise Thursday, AOB
10 knots. Skies generally FEW-SCT100 in the morning, with BKN CIGs
developing with storms in the afternoon. Higher storm chances
area wide Thursday afternoon with TAF amendments likely in the
evening due to sudden outflow wind shifts and scattered TS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Cooler temperatures, higher RH`s and widespread precipitation is
expected to take over the region over the next couple of days and
continue into next week. This will keep the fire danger low. The
main concern over the coming days will be locally heavy rainfall
with total accumulations in the mountains possibly exceeding 3" by
early next week. Vent rates tomorrow look fair to very good and
falling to fair to good for Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 102  76  96  73 /  10  10  30  30
Sierra Blanca            94  72  88  65 /  10  10  50  40
Las Cruces              101  73  93  69 /  10  20  40  40
Alamogordo               99  71  91  66 /  10  20  50  50
Cloudcroft               76  52  67  50 /  30  40  70  60
Truth or Consequences    99  70  92  67 /  10  40  50  50
Silver City              93  66  88  63 /  40  30  70  60
Deming                  101  74  95  68 /  10  20  30  40
Lordsburg               100  73  96  70 /  20  30  50  40
West El Paso Metro       99  76  95  73 /  10  10  30  30
Dell City                99  69  88  67 /  10  10  40  40
Fort Hancock            101  72  95  70 /  20  10  40  40
Loma Linda               93  68  87  66 /  10  10  50  40
Fabens                  100  72  95  72 /  10  10  30  30
Santa Teresa             98  73  94  71 /  10  10  30  30
White Sands HQ           99  72  91  72 /  10  20  50  40
Jornada Range            99  70  92  67 /  10  20  50  40
Hatch                   101  71  93  68 /  10  20  50  50
Columbus                 99  73  97  72 /  10  10  20  40
Orogrande                97  70  91  67 /  10  20  50  40
Mayhill                  86  57  77  53 /  30  40  80  60
Mescalero                87  59  76  54 /  30  40  70  60
Timberon                 85  55  77  52 /  20  30  70  60
Winston                  91  61  84  56 /  30  50  80  70
Hillsboro                96  67  90  65 /  20  30  60  60
Spaceport                99  69  92  65 /  10  30  50  50
Lake Roberts             93  62  85  58 /  50  50  80  70
Hurley                   96  67  90  62 /  30  20  60  60
Cliff                   103  63  95  63 /  50  40  70  60
Mule Creek               96  62  91  65 /  50  50  70  60
Faywood                  95  69  91  65 /  20  30  60  50
Animas                  100  71  97  70 /  30  20  40  30
Hachita                  99  70  95  68 /  10  10  30  30
Antelope Wells           96  69  95  67 /  30  20  30  40
Cloverdale               92  67  91  66 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for NMZ414>416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher