829
FXUS64 KEPZ 031944
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
144 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A shift in winds to the northwest on the weekend will decrease
the amount of moisture in the region, leading to a lower chance of
thunderstorms. Even so, Isolated thunderstorms are possible for
each day of the forecast. High temperatures will continue to be
in the upper 90s and lower 100s for most of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Currently, cloud cover is present for much of the lowlands. This
is keeping temperatures cooler than otherwise. Light showers are
present west of the Rio Grande. Due to the aforementioned
conditions, deep convection will be limited for most of the
region. However, due to sunnier skies in the Gila Region and the
Sacramento Mountains, and orographic lifting, these regions will
have a greater chance of thunderstorms.

There is a deepening upper level high off the Pacific coast and
continued high pressure over the Southern US. These highs will
have consequences for our weather over the weekend and into next
week. The high in the Southern US is allowing moisture advection
from the Gulf of Mexico to occur in the region. This is allowing
PWATs and dewpoints to remain very high (PWATs of 1.2 to 1.5 in
and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s). However, MLCAPE will be low
today (100 to 200 J/kg) due to the aforementioned cloud cover, so
little rainfall is expected in the lowlands. Models are not
optimistic about precipitation for the next couple of days and
have most storms remaining in Hudspeth county and further east.
The upper level high off the west coast will onshore on Thursday
and will start impacting the region on Friday by shifting winds to
a more northeasterly direction. This means that the moisture that
the region has been enjoying will be pushed south. PWATs will
continually decrease over the weekend and reach a minimum on
Sunday with values below 0.50 in. Most storms that form during
this period will be mostly in the El Paso and Hudspeth region due
to higher moisture.

Moisture recovery will take place on Monday due to a shift in
winds to the east with PWATs recovering to around 1 inch across
the region. This will allow greater chances for showers and
thunderstorms next week. Furthermore, the interplay between the
two highs to our east and west will allow for greater shear. Also,
MLCAPE will be in the range of 700-1000 J/kg. This will allow for
a potential for stronger thunderstorms. Hurricane Beryl will
make landfall in the Rio Grande Valley on Monday and its path
will be influenced by the two highs. It will travel up the border
towards our region but it is uncertain whether or not its remnants
will make it the the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Scattered
rain/virga showers persist near KLRU to begin the period, moving
slowly to the northeast. -SHRA have been added until 20z for KLRU
but radar trends will be monitored for any amendments. This
activity should avoid the other TAF sites with isolated showers or
storms possible this afternoon over northwestern areas. No mention
of this activity in the TAFs with low confidence in direct
impacts later today. CIGs around 15kft linger into the overnight.
Winds AOB 8kts continue, mainly from W-SW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Low fire weather concerns for the rest of the week and into the
weekend. Min RH values will be 10-15% for the lowlands and 20-25%
for higher elevations. Winds will be between 5-10 mph and
variable. High temperatures will be in the upper 90s and low 100s
in the lowlands. The upper level high pressure over the Southern
US will allow moisture to continue to flow into the region for the
next couple of days. However, another upper level high off the
west coast will cause winds to shift northwesterly over the
weekend and push much of our moisture to the south. Nevertheless,
there will be sufficient moisture available for isolated showers
and thunderstorms to form, especially in the higher elevations.
Ventilation rates will be fair to good today and very good to
excellent over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  80 104  80  99 /  40  30  30  50
Sierra Blanca            72  95  70  90 /  50  50  50  60
Las Cruces               74 101  74  99 /  40  10  20  40
Alamogordo               71  99  69  94 /  30  10  10  50
Cloudcroft               56  77  52  70 /  30  30  20  70
Truth or Consequences    71  99  71  96 /  20   0  10  20
Silver City              66  93  65  91 /  30  20  20  40
Deming                   70 100  71  99 /  40  10  20  30
Lordsburg                70  99  70  99 /  40  20  20  30
West El Paso Metro       78  99  78  97 /  40  30  30  40
Dell City                75 100  72  94 /  30  40  20  50
Fort Hancock             76 102  75  98 /  40  50  50  70
Loma Linda               72  93  70  89 /  40  40  40  50
Fabens                   77 100  77  98 /  40  40  40  50
Santa Teresa             75  99  74  96 /  40  30  30  40
White Sands HQ           78  99  76  95 /  40  20  30  40
Jornada Range            71  99  69  96 /  40  10  20  40
Hatch                    70 102  70  99 /  40  10  20  40
Columbus                 75  98  74  98 /  40  20  30  40
Orogrande                73  97  72  94 /  40  20  20  50
Mayhill                  61  88  57  78 /  30  30  20  70
Mescalero                60  89  57  81 /  30  20  20  60
Timberon                 59  86  57  79 /  30  30  20  70
Winston                  60  91  59  89 /  20  10  10  30
Hillsboro                70  96  69  94 /  30  10  20  40
Spaceport                67 100  66  96 /  30  10  10  40
Lake Roberts             61  93  60  92 /  30  20  20  40
Hurley                   65  95  65  94 /  40  20  20  40
Cliff                    65 102  65 102 /  20  20  20  30
Mule Creek               67  97  67  96 /  20  10  10  30
Faywood                  67  94  68  93 /  40  20  20  40
Animas                   71  97  69  99 /  40  30  30  40
Hachita                  70  97  69  97 /  40  20  30  30
Antelope Wells           70  95  69  96 /  40  40  40  50
Cloverdale               66  90  65  93 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson/Ribail