088
AXPZ20 KNHC 030959
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A large area of disorganized scattered moderate convection
located a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico, roughly from 10N to 17N between 99W and 107W, is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. An overnight
ASCAT pass over this area showed a sharp wind shift from
northeast to southerly across the mid-section of the low pressure
area. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
within a day or two while it moves northward to northwestward
while remaining offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
However, this system should move over cooler waters on Fri,
preventing further development thereafter. This system has a
medium chance for tropical formation within the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the eastern part of the area has its axis
along 85W north of 03N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Only
small isolated showers near it north of 07N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from along the coast of Colombia
westward to central Costa Rica to 10N85W to 10N90W, then
northwestward to 14N100W, continuing westward to low pressure of
1011 mb near 13N116W and southwestward to 09N128W, where latest
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to
08N132W and to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 92W
and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 12N
between 91W and 94W, within 180 nm south of the trough between
100W and 105W, within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 129W and
131W and also within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 138W and
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
broad area of low pressure that is well offshore southern Mexico
with potential for tropical cyclone formation. Otherwise, a
weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for gentle to
moderate northwest winds over the Baja California offshore
waters. Seas range from 4 to 7 ft N of 25N, and 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds are
present along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light
to gentle with 4 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are over the offshore
waters between Acapulco and Manzanillo.

For the forecast, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop offshore the coast of southern Mexico
through the end of the week due to increasing moisture
associated with the aforementioned broad area of low pressure
described above under Special Features. Otherwise, the gradient
between a surface trough along the Baja California Peninsula and
high pressure west of the area will induce moderate to fresh
southeast winds along the Gulf of California today. These winds
will diminish early on Thu. Fresh to strong north gap winds are
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region Thu night through Fri
morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are present over
the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama while mostly
fresh southwest winds are over the offshore waters west of
southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. Seas across these waters
are in the 4 to 6 ft range due to long-period south swell, with
slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft offshore from southern
Colombia, Ecuador to the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore the coasts
of Guatemala and El Salvador, and also offshore Colombia north
of 04N. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds
producing locally rough seas. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through
Thu, then increase to fresh to locally strong and continue
through early on Fri mainly north of about 05N. Seas will build
to 8 ft in this area of stronger winds. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the forecast
waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and locally rough
seas may accompany some of the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure
of 1034 mb that is located well north of the area near 43N138W.
The ridge covers the waters north of about 17N and west of 122W.
Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are north of 20N west
of 125. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are
elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 5 to 6 ft over these
waters, except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to
gentle northwest to north winds are north of the monsoon trough.
Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds continue south of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W along with seas of 7 to 9
ft in south swell as noted in overnight altimeter satellite
passes over that part of the region.

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W
to continue through Fri, than expand eastward through the
weekend. Seas of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to
subside slightly to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell.
Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja
California Norte offshore waters are accompanied by seas of 8 to
9 ft in north to northeast swell. These conditions will shift
westward by Wed night to north of 27N and between 126W and 136W.

$$
Aguirre