164
AXPZ20 KNHC 131500
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jul 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W extending from the
Caribbean seas across Panama and into the far eastern waters,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted N of 04N and E of 80W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W from 16N southward,
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 06N to 15N between 93W and 104W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 110W from 20N southward,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N to 16N between 110W and 118W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N104W to 11N136W.
The ITCZ extends from 11N136W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 06N to 13N between 120W and
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are over
the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh winds are over the
forecast waters S of SW Mexico, where seas are in the 4-5 ft
range. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is resulting in light
to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week before
diminishing. Seas will peak to 9 ft on Sun and Mon. Fresh to
strong winds in the Gulf of California will diminish early Sun.
Moderate to fresh SE winds will move across the SW Mexican
offshore waters through Sun. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are
forecast through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of
Papagayo with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 5-6 ft, are between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.
Light to gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Aside
from seas over the Gulf of Papagayo, and between the Galapagos
Islands and Ecuador, seas are in the 3-4 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail
over the Papagayo region through the weekend, then diminish
slightly early next week through the remainder forecast period.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will
continue between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
through Tue. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to
moderate winds N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and W of 120W. Light
to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds are S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 7-8
ft range in N swell N of 28N between 125W and 135W. Seas of 4-7
ft prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected
from 10N to 22N between 120W and 140W. Large northerly swell
will prevail over the far northern waters today before subsiding
Sun. Southerly swell to 8 ft may reach north of equator to 10N
and between 110W and 125W later this weekend into early next
week. Winds may freshen south of the ITCZ and west of 110W early
next week.

$$
AL