874
FXUS63 KEAX 021133
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot and humid conditions expected today with heat indices
  expected to reach 100-110 degrees across the area.

- Strong to severe storms possible late this afternoon into Wednesday
  morning. The main threat will be damaging straight-line
  winds. The strongest storms may produce isolated hail or a
  tornado or two. Flooded areas may be further aggravated.

- Repeated rounds of thunderstorms continue Wednesday and
  Thursday with chances for strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 506 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

In the upper levels, broad ridging has moved to the northeast over
the Great Lakes region. To the northwest of the area, there is
troughing entering the Great Plains with a jet max rounding the base
of the trough over the ND/SD border. Wind flow over our area is out
of the southwest. At the surface, high pressure is continuing to
move further east. A surface low and its associated frontal boundary
has formed to the west over western KS. Winds have already shifted
to the south over the area As warmer, more saturated air advects
from the south. High temperatures across the region are expected to
range from the low to upper 90s with higher temperatures south of I-
70. With dew point temperatures in the low 70s, heat indices are
expected to reach 100-110 across the area. A heat advisory has been
issued from 17Z to 01Z.

The surface low to the west is expected to track to the northeast
over southern IA. Storms and showers are expected to develop along
the northeast/southwest oriented frontal boundary as it pushes
through. Some storms may be strong to severe with 2,000-3,000 J/kg
of CAPE and bulk shear values exceeding 40 knots. A low-level jet is
expected to intensify which will further help to increase shear and
instability. Damaging straight-line winds seem to be the primary
concern at the moment. However, all hazards will be possible with
the strongest storms. Heavy rainfall also seems to be another
concern with PWATs ranging from 1.9-2.3 inches for our area. WPC has
our entire area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for today
and tomorrow. The higher rainfall totals are expected to impact the
northeastern MO (counties north of I-70 and east of I-35). Storm
total accumulations range from 2-3" for these areas. Additional
rounds of heavy rainfall will likely further aggravate river and
creek flooding across the region.

For Wednesday, a shortwave is expected to move through the area
which could lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms.
MUCAPE values ranging from 1,500-2,000 J/kg south of I-70 and bulk
shear values ranging from 40-50kts suggest a potential for strong to
severe storms Wednesday afternoon into the evening. With the
stronger instability in southern MO, the more likely severe threat
seems to be for the southern portions of our area.

For Thursday, the unsettled pattern continues with another chance
for strong to severe storms. At this time, confidence is higher for
the severe threat on Thursday than on Wednesday. Higher CAPE values,
unstable lapse rates, and 40-50 knot bulk shear values over the area
suggest a potential for all hazards. We will continue to closely
monitor conditions as the time approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Ongoing showers in northern MO are expected to remain north of the
terminals. Another round of showers and storms are expected to
develop after 20Z for northwestern MO. These storms are expected to
move southeast through the day reaching KSTJ around 22Z and KMCI,
KMKC, and KIXD after 00Z. Winds will come from the south with
occasional gusts up to 30 mph during the day and shift to the north
after midnight. A potential for MVFR ceilings exists early tomorrow
morning, however they were left out for now due to low
confidence.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ028>031-037>039-043>045-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier