712
FNUS22 KWNS 161956
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND FAR
NORTHERN NEVADA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA AND
EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...

...Update...
A few adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated areas for
Saturday, along with the introduction of a narrow corridor of
isolated dry thunderstorms across the western Columbia Basin of OR
and WA.

...Dry/Windy...
Breezy southerly surface winds are still expected to develop
Saturday afternoon near two surface lows, and combine with low-teens
RH. The first area of concern will be across portions of
southeastern OR and far northern NV, influenced by a tightening
surface pressure gradient. Here, sustained surface wind speeds as
high as 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible.
Further south, across south-central NV and near the White and Inyo
Mountains of CA, slightly higher wind speeds under the influence of
a mid-level jet will be possible in conjunction with RH in the
single digits to low teens. The southern extent of the Critical area
across OR and northern NV was reduced slightly, since it appears the
duration of critical wind-speed thresholds will remain below 3 hours
there. However, the Critical area further south was expanded north
and south to account for a broader region of critical speeds
overlapping receptive fuels.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific
upper trough, will impact OR and WA Saturday afternoon through late
Saturday evening. Ascent associated with this feature, along with
sufficient moisture, will support widely scattered thunderstorm
development during this time. Most of this activity will result in
wetting rainfall just west of the Cascades, but isolated dry
lightning strikes appear possible within a narrow corridor mainly
over the western Columbia Basin of OR on the eastern fringe of the
deeper mid-level moisture axis. In addition, outflow winds
associated with a cluster of thunderstorms could result in severe
gusts later in the evening perhaps somewhere near the OR/WA
border/Columbia Gorge.

..Barnes.. 08/16/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach
the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong
mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San
Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and
associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions
across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well
as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California.

...Dry/Windy...
Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are
anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern
Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo
mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be
beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the
surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with
gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative
humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual
percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over
south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday
should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In
southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in
California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity
values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th
annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions.
Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and
meteorological guidance.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$