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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
712 FNUS22 KWNS 161956 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA AND EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... ...Update... A few adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated areas for Saturday, along with the introduction of a narrow corridor of isolated dry thunderstorms across the western Columbia Basin of OR and WA. ...Dry/Windy... Breezy southerly surface winds are still expected to develop Saturday afternoon near two surface lows, and combine with low-teens RH. The first area of concern will be across portions of southeastern OR and far northern NV, influenced by a tightening surface pressure gradient. Here, sustained surface wind speeds as high as 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible. Further south, across south-central NV and near the White and Inyo Mountains of CA, slightly higher wind speeds under the influence of a mid-level jet will be possible in conjunction with RH in the single digits to low teens. The southern extent of the Critical area across OR and northern NV was reduced slightly, since it appears the duration of critical wind-speed thresholds will remain below 3 hours there. However, the Critical area further south was expanded north and south to account for a broader region of critical speeds overlapping receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific upper trough, will impact OR and WA Saturday afternoon through late Saturday evening. Ascent associated with this feature, along with sufficient moisture, will support widely scattered thunderstorm development during this time. Most of this activity will result in wetting rainfall just west of the Cascades, but isolated dry lightning strikes appear possible within a narrow corridor mainly over the western Columbia Basin of OR on the eastern fringe of the deeper mid-level moisture axis. In addition, outflow winds associated with a cluster of thunderstorms could result in severe gusts later in the evening perhaps somewhere near the OR/WA border/Columbia Gorge. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$