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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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242 ACUS01 KWNS 141619 SWODY1 SPC AC 141617 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft is in place today across the northern Plains and Midwest, with several small-scale features noted in satellite imagery embedded in the flow. This will result in multiple MCSs from MT into the upper OH valley during this period. ...IN/OH this afternoon... A linear MCS is currently ongoing over portions of northwest IN and northeast IL. Strong heating ahead of the system across much of IN/OH, combined with surface dewpoints near 70F will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE, likely aiding intensification of storms. Given 20-25 knots of mid-level flow and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates, a few strong to severe storms are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1612 for further details. ...Eastern IA/Southern WI/Northern IL/Northern IN... Strong heating is occurring in wake of aforementioned MCS across parts of eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where ample low-level moisture remains. A well-defined remnant MCV from the overnight severe MCS over SD is currently over northern IA, and will track into the destabilizing air mass. A consensus of morning CAM solutions suggest that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the MCV and track toward northern IL/IN this evening. Damaging winds and some hail would be the main threats. ...Northeast MT/Dakotas/Western MN... Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough digging southeastward across southern AB. Large scale lift ahead of this system will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by early evening across portions of northeast MT and western ND. Model solutions remain diverse in the details of how this convective scenario unfolds. However, it appears likely that one or more clusters of strong/severe storms will track across ND and into northeast SD/western MN during the night. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with these storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from parts of eastern VA northeastward into eastern PA and NJ. Winds through the low/mid troposphere are rather weak and lapse rates are poor. Nevertheless, ample low-level moisture and rather high PWAT values may result in gusty winds near the strongest storms. ...AZ... Clear skies early today combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s will yield a hot and moderately unstable air mass this afternoon with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain of western NM/eastern AZ and along the rim later today, with sufficient easterly mid-level flow to aid propagation off the mountains. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany these storms. ..Hart/Leitman.. 07/14/2024 $$