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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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642 ACUS01 KWNS 170057 SWODY1 SPC AC 170055 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...FROM THE OZARKS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into the nighttime hours across portions of the central and southern Plains, and from the Ozarks into western Kentucky. A severe risk will also continue for a few more hours this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Damaging gusts will be the main concern with this activity, though isolated large hail is possible across the central Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a damaging wind risk the next few hours. The main threat will be associated with a bowing segment across MA/NH, and other cluster further south near the I-95 corridor from NYC to Washington D.C., where Severe Thunderstorm Watches 548 and 549 remain in effect. For more information, see MCDs 1660 and 1662. ...Central/Southern Plains... Thunderstorms over southeast CO have consolidated into a forward-propagating MCS this evening. This activity should continue east/southeast the next several hours, posing a risk for severe/damaging gusts. A supercell over central NE has shown some tendency toward upscale development over the past hour. Along with this cell, other isolated cells will continue to pose a risk for severe/damaging gusts and hail over the next few hours. Severe Thunderstorm Watches 550 and 551 remain in effect for several more hours to cover these hazards. For short term info across the southwest KS vicinity, see MCD 1663. ...Ozarks into KY... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been reoriented to be better aligned with an MCV currently located over southwest MO, and with ongoing convection across northern AR. Thunderstorms will continue to develop ahead of the MCV and within a modest warm advection regime. This activity may occasionally produce severe/damaging gusts into tonight, especially if a cold pool can develop. For more short term details, see MCD 1661. ...AZ... Isolated thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for severe gusts for several more hours tonight across southeast AZ amid modest instability and very steep low-level lapse rates. Convective coverage has remained fairly low so far this evening, however, if coverage can increase, a small forward propagating cluster could develop southwest toward the international border. This scenario is uncertain given rather weak midlevel flow. ..Leitman.. 07/17/2024 $$