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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
741 FNUS21 KWNS 021638 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...17Z Update... The previous forecast remains valid and largely unchanged. An expansion of the Southern Plains Elevated area further southwest into Central TX was introduced in order to cover hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon and early evening that overlap with supportive fuels. Localized dry and breezy conditions may occur across Southwest OR. However, no Elevated highlight will be introduced at this time. See previous discussion for more information. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$