397
FXUS63 KDVN 161123
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
623 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated-Scattered showers and storms today will be seen,
  especially north of Interstate 80. Marginal Risk for severe
  weather east of the Mississippi River, highlighting the chance
  for isolated large hail and severe winds.

- Temperatures will trend near normal through the weekend and
  into next week, with days in the 80s and nights in the
  50s/60s.

- Precipitation chances will be limited to the weekend, with
  much of next week looking dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

With a weak cold front slowly passing through the area and recent
rainfall adding moisture to the LLVLs, we will see the potential for
fog through sunrise. Best chances will remain in river valleys or
along the boundary moving through. Confidence remains low on the
spatial coverage of the fog potential, but will continue to monitor
and update the forecast accordingly.

Cutoff upper low remains situated north of the area, with bouts of
energy continuing to gyrate around and through the area. The
attendant surface low will slowly continue to track southeast,
skirting our northeast through the day today. With moisture
pooling close to the low center and a weak secondary cold front
passing through the area, we will see the chance for isolated to
scattered showers/storms in our north today. A Marginal Risk
(level 1/5) for severe weather remains for areas east of the
Mississippi River, highlighting the potential for isolated large
hail and severe winds. Otherwise, temperatures will be warm
once again today, with most approaching the low-mid 80s, with
breezy westerly winds and mostly clear skies. Much of the
showers/storms should move out by or shortly after sunset this
evening, leaving us with some passing clouds in the north.
Otherwise, much of the area will remain mostly clear.
Temperatures will remain mild once again tonight, with much of
the area in the mid 60s. A west-northwesterly breeze will
continue into the night, with humidity decreasing as well. Thus,
we are not expecting much of a fog threat after this system
passes to our east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Largely quiet weather dominates the Quad Cities CWA in the long term
as the upper low currently situated over the ND/MN border slowly
migrates east over the next several days, putting the area into
northwest flow. Temperatures are expected to sit generally
right around average through Tuesday with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Temperatures,
combined with manageable humidity levels (especially early next
week), should make for overall pleasant weather. The focus over
this weekend will be on the upper low Saturday as it pushes
into Lower Michigan, which could provide enough forcing for a
few wrap-around showers over the far eastern portions of our
area. The most favored time for shower activity comes during the
daytime hours on Saturday. Still, generally low chances (<35%)
for precipitation exist, so not expecting anything in the way
of widespread rainfall.

Shower chances diminish Sunday and beyond as the upper low exits and
high pressure builds in. Mid-level ridging builds in by midweek,
which will nudge temperatures back up into the upper 80s late
week.

Siemianowski

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period. The
main concern will be for fog this morning, as we are seeing
patchy fog dropping visibility as low as a quarter of a mile
briefly. With the sun rising, visibility will start to improve
over the next 2-3 hours. From there, we will have westerly winds
through the day, gusting upwards to 20 KTs at times. We may see
an isolated storm impacting near DBQ, but confidence remains low
at this time.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Gunkel