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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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397 FXUS63 KDVN 161123 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 623 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated-Scattered showers and storms today will be seen, especially north of Interstate 80. Marginal Risk for severe weather east of the Mississippi River, highlighting the chance for isolated large hail and severe winds. - Temperatures will trend near normal through the weekend and into next week, with days in the 80s and nights in the 50s/60s. - Precipitation chances will be limited to the weekend, with much of next week looking dry. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 With a weak cold front slowly passing through the area and recent rainfall adding moisture to the LLVLs, we will see the potential for fog through sunrise. Best chances will remain in river valleys or along the boundary moving through. Confidence remains low on the spatial coverage of the fog potential, but will continue to monitor and update the forecast accordingly. Cutoff upper low remains situated north of the area, with bouts of energy continuing to gyrate around and through the area. The attendant surface low will slowly continue to track southeast, skirting our northeast through the day today. With moisture pooling close to the low center and a weak secondary cold front passing through the area, we will see the chance for isolated to scattered showers/storms in our north today. A Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather remains for areas east of the Mississippi River, highlighting the potential for isolated large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, temperatures will be warm once again today, with most approaching the low-mid 80s, with breezy westerly winds and mostly clear skies. Much of the showers/storms should move out by or shortly after sunset this evening, leaving us with some passing clouds in the north. Otherwise, much of the area will remain mostly clear. Temperatures will remain mild once again tonight, with much of the area in the mid 60s. A west-northwesterly breeze will continue into the night, with humidity decreasing as well. Thus, we are not expecting much of a fog threat after this system passes to our east. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Largely quiet weather dominates the Quad Cities CWA in the long term as the upper low currently situated over the ND/MN border slowly migrates east over the next several days, putting the area into northwest flow. Temperatures are expected to sit generally right around average through Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Temperatures, combined with manageable humidity levels (especially early next week), should make for overall pleasant weather. The focus over this weekend will be on the upper low Saturday as it pushes into Lower Michigan, which could provide enough forcing for a few wrap-around showers over the far eastern portions of our area. The most favored time for shower activity comes during the daytime hours on Saturday. Still, generally low chances (<35%) for precipitation exist, so not expecting anything in the way of widespread rainfall. Shower chances diminish Sunday and beyond as the upper low exits and high pressure builds in. Mid-level ridging builds in by midweek, which will nudge temperatures back up into the upper 80s late week. Siemianowski && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period. The main concern will be for fog this morning, as we are seeing patchy fog dropping visibility as low as a quarter of a mile briefly. With the sun rising, visibility will start to improve over the next 2-3 hours. From there, we will have westerly winds through the day, gusting upwards to 20 KTs at times. We may see an isolated storm impacting near DBQ, but confidence remains low at this time. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...Gunkel