089
FXUS63 KDMX 170346
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1046 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and rumbles of thunderstorms in the
  northeast this afternoon and early evening. Severe weather
  threat is minimal.

- Return of some widely scattered showers Saturday afternoon.

- Quiet, fair weather expected to last until precipitation
  chances return late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A stacked upper level system continued to swirl across the upper
Midwest this afternoon with its warm sector located far to the
northeast of the area. What remains is areas of showers and a few
thunderstorms embedded in a broken deck of clouds. Pockets of
clearing will allow the boundary layer to mix out and realize CAPE
at the magnitude of a few hundred J/kg. Enough for convection, but
not enough for severe weather. Well-mixed near storm environments
may offer the chance of funnel clouds in the remaining daylight
hours, especially near the weak surface boundary identified by
localized wind enhancements in northeast Iowa. CAA will delay PBL
decoupling to an hour or two after sunset, delaying the end of some
sprinkles and gusty winds. Stratus will develop overnight in the
northeast and linger into Saturday afternoon when more widely
scattered showers will be possible. Partly sunny skies can be found
elsewhere Saturday with highs near 80.

Largely uneventful weather is expected through the first half of
next week as high pressure remains over the region. Temperatures
will remain below normal for mid August. Southerly winds return on
the back side of the departing high by Wednesday, warming
temperatures back towards average. Rain will return to the forecast
once the main axis of Gulf moisture can return late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Cyclonic flow helps the lower stratus linger into tonight and
Saturday, particularly in northeast Iowa. MVFR ceilings are
likely to overspread the northeast overnight before improving to
VFR cigs by midday Saturday. Elsewhere, widespread VFR
conditions are forecast. An isolated shower remains possible in
the northeast on Saturday afternoon but with limited impact.
Surface winds remain northwest overnight and most robust in the
northeast where the overcast allows for mixing to persist
overnight.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jimenez
AVIATION...Cogil