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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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585 FXUS63 KDLH 042124 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 424 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern continues with a chance for moderate rain this afternoon through Friday. The greatest chance of 0.5-1.0 inches is mainly south of a line from the Brainerd Lakes to Moose Lake to Ashland, WI. - Another system will bring additional chances of rain this weekend, and intermittently again next week. - High water persists across the Rainy River Basin and a Flood Advisory is in effect through early next week. See the summary at www.weather.gov/dlh/RainyRiverBasin && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 420 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Active weather continues with an upper level shortwave moving across the area today in combination with a warm humid airmass and and weak surface features to generate some scattered showers/storms. The upper low is over southeast South Dakota as depicted by the nice swirl on IR satellite imagery this afternoon. The convection driven by this upper low is mainly over central and southern MN into WI, with warm air advection driving up over a weak warm front extending from the surface low over southwest MN east along the IA/MN border into southern WI. A sort of inverted trough extending north into northwest MN, and is associated with the scattered shower and storm activity we are seeing there as well. While we have managed to build CAPE of around 1000 j/kg this afternoon for parts of the area, deep layer shear values are less than 20kts, leaving us with primarily upright storms with little chance for severe storms, though their slow movement may produce locally heavy rainfall, though with the storms not lasting very long, any flooding risk is going to depend on repeat storms over the same areas. This pattern will continue into tonight as the upper low moves slowly east across the area, with it remaining close enough to continue to generate shower and storm chances through Friday. With this overhead, we have been a little cooler than normal, which should continue on Friday as well. The upper low moves out in time to give us dry weather late Friday night into Saturday, before another slow moving shortwave swings through the broad upper level trough overhead Saturday evening through Monday. From what is depicted now, we should have another couple days of decent instability without much shear, producing brief heavy downpours and lightning, but any severe risk looks very limited at this point. Again, with the upper low overhead producing more cloud cover, temperatures will be near to below normal. This active weather pattern continues through much of next week, with what looks like yet another shortwave that dives through the upper level northwest flow, but model agreement on the timing and strength of this feature is quite low, and we are left with some intermittent small chance pops through the rest of the work week. The northwest flow aloft and northwest flow aloft will also help keep us near to below normal for temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 An area of rain with embedded thunder is beginning to work into the region this afternoon. This is a very slow progression north, and have some VCTS groups beginning for KBRD and KHYR at 20z. Do not expect persistent rainfall into either terminal until 00z, with ceilings gradually lowering to MVFR, and KHYR eventually going to IFR ceilings for the late overnight and early Friday hours. Conditions for these terminals to return to VFR from west to east, by 12z for KBRD, but not until after 18z for KHYR. Visibilities should remain no worse than MVFR. Expect all other terminals to remain VFR this TAF period except perhaps some passing MVFR showers for KDLH/KHIB this evening. There is a potential for east winds off Lake Superior to cause some IFR ceilings, but this is a low probability and have left out of forecast. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 420 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Northeast winds to slowly increase through this afternoon and evening and gust in the 15 to 20 knot range tonight and early Friday before diminishing again. Waves should build to between 1 and 3 feet. While this may make for a bumpy ride out on the lake, conditions will not be especially hazardous for Small Craft. Winds diminish Friday evening before increasing out of the southwest late Friday night into Saturday. Speeds will remain under 15 knots with waves of less than 2 feet. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...LE MARINE...LE