684
FXUS63 KDLH 030601
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
101 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next chance for widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall
  is Thursday night into Friday morning over inland northwest
  Wisconsin.

- Near-normal temperatures throughout the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A cold front moves from west to east over the Northland this
afternoon and evening. Afternoon clearing behind widespread
rainfall this morning helped to initiate isolated showers so
far this afternoon in north-central Minnesota. Mean storm motion
will be east-northeastward as southwesterly low-level winds
veer westerly in the mid to upper-levels this evening. Model
forecast soundings support high-res cam guidance of scattered
strong thunderstorms peaking in coverage from 6-11 PM this
evening as mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and CAPE of
600-800 J/kg sustain updrafts long enough to produce pea to
maybe penny size hail later today. Elevated winds around 30-35
knots may create gusts of 40-45 mph with any collapsing storms
in this same time period. The most favored potential is from
Grand Rapids to Two Harbors northward in northeast Minnesota.

The mid-level trough passes by the Northland after Midnight
tonight to leave near-normal temperatures in the mid-70s to
around 80 and gusty westerly winds behind for Wednesday. A
secondary trailing backdoor cold front drops southward Wednesday
afternoon and supports another chance of general thunderstorms
in far northern Minnesota for Wednesday afternoon and evening
again.

Those near-normal upper-70 temperatures last into the
Independence Day holiday on Thursday, as a low pressure in the
Lower Midwest drapes a warm front immediately south of the
region. This area of mid-level divergence with building
instability axis from north-central MN into inland northwest
Wisconsin is most likely to create concerns for scattered
daytime general to strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
Deepening on where the warm front sets up the northward extend
near the South Shore Thursday night, locally heavy rainfall up
to a couple of inches of rainfall may (30-40% chance) setup for
inland northwest Wisconsin. The more favored solution though is
this rainfall being closer to a half inch to one inch though for
the inland parts of northwest Wisconsin through Friday morning
as the low pressure drifts eastward.

A trough centered in the Central Canadian Prairies deepens
Friday into Saturday morning as it drops southeastward into the
northern US Plains by Saturday evening. Any speed up in this
trough could create concerns for strong thunderstorms over parts
of northern Minnesota for Saturday evening and overnight and
ending Sunday morning. Near-normal temperatures with periodic
thunderstorm chances last into the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

IFR CIGS held on at HYR as of 06Z. Expect those to clear out
within the next hour or so per GOES-East night microphysics
imagery. Think we may see MVFR/IFR visibility develop at HIB,
INL, and HYR overnight provided winds become calm before
sunrise. Added short TEMPO groups to handle that potential.
Gusty west wind are expected during the day today. Scattered
showers and perhaps a few isolated storms are possible over
northern Minnesota this afternoon. Left a mention of VCTS in the
forecast for INL. Winds weaken after 04.01Z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Gusty southerly winds from the Apostles eastward to Saxon
Harbor this afternoon further decrease into the evening before
shifting southwesterly for Wednesday. Gusty southwesterly winds
forecast to 25 knots near and north of Grand Marais tomorrow
afternoon resulted in a Small Craft Advisory being issued.
Lighter easterly winds are likely Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...NLy