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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
651 FNUS28 KWNS 282143 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity... Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day 3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with fuels not as critical in these areas. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However, forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet. Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding probabilities for critical conditions at this time. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity... A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$