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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
935 FNUS28 KWNS 022154 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An unusually strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the West Coast synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. 600 DAM 500 mb heights will allow for extreme heat and very dry surface conditions to develop over much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Several weak upper troughs will move along the eastern edge of the ridge supporting occasional stronger surface winds and some fire danger. Otherwise, modest synoptic winds will occur under the ridge over much of the West, with near record temperatures and rapid drying of fuels likely. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the strong ridge of high pressure intensifies this week, several modest perturbations will move around the top and eastern periphery of the ridge over the Northwest and northern Great Basin late in the week and into the weekend. With several days of hot and very dry conditions expected prior, gusty downslope winds of 15-25 mph could support localized fire-weather concerns across the lee of the Cascades and western Columbia Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. Confidence in the coverage of stronger winds and uncertainties in fuel availability will preclude probabilities for now. More significant fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend as the upper trough and associated jet streak move south into the Great Basin. A wind shift at the surface will accompany the upper trough as breezy northwest surface winds to 20-25 mph develop behind it across parts of southern ID, northern NV and western UT D5/Saturday. Very warm temperatures and low RH of 10-15% will precede the increase in winds, supporting an increased risk for critical fire-weather conditions. D6/Sunday and beyond, confidence in the evolution of the upper ridge and the associated synoptic pattern decreases substantially. Some risk for dry and breezy conditions may continue with northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. However, the spatial coverage and uncertainties in fuels lend low confidence in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions at this time. ...Southern CA... Periodic offshore and terrain-enhanced flow is expected over parts of southern CA late this week. South of the ridge of high pressure, light easterly mid-level winds are expected to overspread the Desert Southwest and southern CA. While weak, somewhat enhanced low-level pressure gradients may support a few hours of breezy downslope winds near 20-25 mph overnight D3/Thursday through D5/Friday. With very hot and dry conditions likely beneath the ridge, localized near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur with these weak Sundowner winds and across parts of the southern CA Valleys. Winds should dissipate this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and the weak upper-level support lessens. ..Lyons/Halbert.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$