957
FXUS61 KCTP 050823
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
423 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Very warm/humid summertime pattern continues into next week
*Showers and thunderstorms are possible in spots today and
 Saturday followed by a rain-free end to the first weekend of
 July

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Hires models are in good agreement tracking a cluster of
rain showers/embedded thunder with brief heavy rain across the
northern half of the forecast area through 18Z. We will adjust
precip probs upward based on this bullish signal. Lingering
cloud cover and subsidence behind the early day rain appears to
result in a lull/min in precip this afternoon. CAMs suggest
some additional convection could develop later this
evening/closer to 00Z over the western into the central zones,
but overall confidence is low. CAPE and shear profiles are
supportive of isolated severe t-storm potential with a large
MRGL risk SWO covering most of the CWA. However, timing remains
a wildcard and could end up being to late in the day/after dark.

Another hot and humid summer day across CPA with highs in the
85-95F range. With the humidity (dewpoints 70-75F), it will feel
like 100-102 degrees across portions of south central PA
particularly in the lower Susquehanna Valley. Max HX values
ticked higher above the century mark and we coordinated with
WFO PHI on the issuance of heat advisory from noon to 8PM. A
couple of showers/t-storm will could linger overnight which
will be very warm and muggy with low temps 65-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Focus for t-storms will shift to the eastern periphery of the
CWA on Saturday PM along and ahead of a weak cold front. Despite
a very moist/unstable environment, most model guidance suggests
limited storm coverage likely owing to neutral height falls and
weak llvl convergence. That said, still can`t rule out a couple
of strong t-storms over eastern PA.

High pressure builds in Saturday night and provides a slightly
less humid and dry (rain-free) end to the first weekend of July.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
All medium range guidance supports fair weather and above
average temperatures into early next week with upper level
ridging indicated over the northeast. At the surface, high
pressure is progged to build over Pennsylvania Sunday, then pass
off of the east coast early next week. The return southerly
flow should result in an uptick in heat/humidity early next
week.

Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms appear possible on
Monday based on recent GEFS plumes but guidance continues to
suggest a better chance of precipitation on Tuesday with the
arrival of a cold front during the afternoon hours. There is
still a fair amount of uncertainty with regards to the cold
front clearing eastern Pennsylvania later on Wednesday, so have
retained PoPs through this timeframe. Towards the end of the
period, deterministic guidance begins to outline high pressure
influence into the region; however, given so much uncertainty
earlier in the forecast period have opted not to deviate from
NBM PoPs at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An area of showers is moving in from the west ahead of an MCV
located over western PA. These showers will likely impact the
visibility in the NW mountains during the overnight hours before
they eventually push out of the region by sunrise.

Fog and low ceilings will likely develop across almost all of
Central PA overnight. The highest probabilities for IFR
visibilities are at BFD and IPT, and the highest probabilities
for IFR ceilings are at BFD, IPT, and JST. All other sites will
likely see MVFR conditions tonight with brief periods of IFR
possible.

Conditions will improve to VFR fairly quickly after sunrise
across most of the area, though it could take until late morning
for BFD and IPT to see the low ceilings improve. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible again later this
afternoon, though coverage looks to be more limited than what
occurred Thursday.

Outlook...

Fri...Sct TSRA w/ possible impacts; Mainly PM w/ highest
coverage across the west.

Sat...Sct to Nmrs TSRA areawide, highest chances SE in PM.

Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise, no sig wx.

Mon...SHRA possible SE late PM; otherwise, no sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
PAZ026>028-035-036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Martin/NPB
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen