295
FXUS61 KCTP 031043
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
643 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push off of the Mid Atlantic coast today. A
dying cold front will push in from the Great Lakes tonight,
then stall out over the area late this week. Low pressure
tracking north of Pennsylvania will drag a cold front through
the state Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This morning is considerably more mild than it was 24 hours ago
with temperatures in the 60s areawide. Cloud cover overnight
helped limit radiational cooling and kept low temperatures 10
to 20 degrees higher than they were at daybreak on Tuesday.

Upper level ridging over PA today should provide most of the
region with fair and warmer conditions. The warmup will be
accompanied by an uptick in humidity as a southerly flow
increases ahead of a weak cold front over the Great Lakes.
After a partly cloudy to mostly sunny start, diurnal heating
and surging low level moisture should result a fair amount of
afternoon cumulus, especially over the western mountains.

Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal over the W Mtns
and near average elsewhere, translating to highs well into the
80s areawide. Moisture advection and low level convergence along
an approaching low level jet could potentially support a
shower or thunderstorms in northwest PA this evening. A cold
front will move into the region overnight and weaken as it
approaches. It will help focus the potential for showers and
thunderstorms mainly north and west of the I-99/I-80 corridor
through daybreak Thursday. Rainfall amounts should generally
remain less than a quarter inch, but isolated amounts over 0.75
inches are possible. Clouds and increasing humidity will result
in low temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s by Thursday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A mostly cloudy day is in store for the Fourth of July with a
noticeable uptick in humidity. Dewpoint temperatures will soar
into the 70s across much of the region. Morning showers and
storms associated with the decaying cold front will gradually
move southeast through the day and should remain scattered in
coverage. The front will be located over southern PA by Thursday
afternoon, which is where most of the shower activity should be
concentrated for any 4th of July and/or fireworks festivities.
Highs on Thursday afternoon will generally be in the 80s with a
few spots potentially reaching 90 degrees in the southeast
before convection arrives.

The threat for severe weather and flash flooding remains
relatively low and is maximized (Marginal risk) along and south
of I-76. The realization of any downburst winds or flash
flooding will likely be contingent on some breaks in the clouds
to generate instability. Bulk shear near the front will be
sufficient for organization, but CAPE may be lacking owing to
persistent cloud cover. Regardless, the chance of showers and
storms should be monitored for anyone who plans to take part in
outdoor festivities to celebrate Independence Day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The front is progged to stall out in the vicinity of Southern
PA Thursday night, then return north as a warm front Friday
ahead of low pressure lifting across the Grt Lks. Falling
heights and surging pwats ahead of an upstream shortwave and
associated surface low lifting across the Grt Lks should bring a
round of showers/tsra in the Friday PM to Saturday timeframe.
Current guidance suggests the shortwave and bulk of the large
scale forcing will pass north of PA, leading to unimpressive
mean qpf in the ensemble plumes of 0.25 to 0.50 inches Fri PM to
Saturday.

The bulk of guidance now supports fair and seasonable conditions
Sunday into at least early Monday, as surface ridging and drier
air work in behind the cold front. Showers and storms return to
the forecast for early next week as another wave of low
pressure tracking to our north brings a cold front through the
region.

Temperatures in the long term forecast look above average,
especially overnight lows Wednesday through Friday night, when
EPS pwats are 150pct of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure dome overhead will keep wind very light
overnight. The southerly wind will pick up a bit again on Wed.

There is a small window of time overnight when the wind just
aloft gets up to 25-35KTs, so we`ve mentioned LLWS in the wrn
forecasts, but the core of the faster wind is more over the NW,
and we don`t expect the SErn terminals to have LLWS.

A cold front will approach Wed night and lay out W-E over the
state on Thurs. The deep moisture Wed PM and Thurs will allow
for sct- nmrs TSRA. Arriving mid aftn at BFD, so have included
VCSH in BFD TAF starting 03/20Z and MVFR cigs/vsby in showers
with thunder possible after 23Z.


Outlook...

Wed night...TSRA NW (IFR poss), dry SE with no impacts.

Thu...AM low cigs and isold SHRA possible W Mtns. Sct PM TSRA
impacts possible over all the airspace, but mainly S of I-80.

Fri...sct TSRA, impacts possible, mainly PM, highest covg W.

Sat...sct-nmrs TSRA areawide, highest SE in PM.

Sun...AM fog poss. Otherwise, no sig wx.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 2024 was the warmest June on record for Bradford with a
mean temperature of 66.6F, breaking the old record of 65.8F set
in 2021.

June 2024 was the 3rd warmest June on record for Harrisburg with
a mean temperature of 76.0F.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Bauco
AVIATION...Gartner/Colbert
CLIMATE...Colbert