275
FXUS61 KCTP 052333
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
733 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid summertime pattern with above to well above
normal daytime and nighttime temperatures continues into next
week.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible in spots late today and
tonight with the main threat for storms shifting to eastern PA
on Saturday.

Rain-free conditions and less humidity will follow for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Heat advisory for much of South-Central PA through early this
evening was reduced slightly and extended overnight tonight and
through 00Z Sun considering the lack of significant relief in
the high dewpoint/light wind environment tonight with apparent
Ts in the 90s/80s through the first half of tonight.

Mid level ridge axis overhead combined with a strong cap
(9.5-10.5C at 700 mb) and earlier widespread and relatively
thick, layered cloud cover has minimized development of any deep
convection thus far. However, conditions will become more
favorable for SHRA/TSRA this evening (West) and during the early
to middle of the overnight across the Central Zones and much of
the Susq Valley as a subtle shortwave/few deg C of cooling
aloft moves NE up the Ohio Valley. Showers could still linger
until daybreak in the far NE.

Sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s and the increasing
cloud cover advecting in with the convection from the SW will
lead to a very warm and muggy night with min temps similarly in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Localized, briefly cooler temps in
the mid 60s will occur where rainfall occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Focus for t-storms will shift to the eastern third of the CWA
(Mainly Saturday PM) along and ahead of a weak cold front. A
second area of SHRA/Low-topped TSRA are possible along the
boundary of the Lake Erie Breeze that should reach NW Warren
County and perhaps NW McKean Cty.

HREF and its members suggests limited storm coverage likely
owing to neutral height falls and weak llvl convergence. a
couple of strong t-storms are still possible over eastern PA
(generally east of a KIPt to KMDT line.

High pressure builds in Saturday night and provides a slightly
less humid and dry (rain-free) end to the first weekend of July.

Sfc dewpoints will slowly creep back up to uncomfortable levels
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms appear possible on
Monday with easterly/southeasterly flow bringing an increase of
moisture to central Pennsylvania. Surging PWATs into Tuesday
will promote higher chances of precipitation later in the
evening and into Wednesday morning as a surface cold front
approaches the region. Precipitation is expected to continue
through late Wednesday when the cold front shifts east of the
area, but have retained PoPs through the end of the Wednesday
timeframe based on some remaining uncertainty with regards to
timing.

Some divergence in model solutions on Thursday and into the end
of the week with the North American suite of models outlining
surface high pressure taking hold across the region while the
European suite of models outline a continuation of showers and
storms throughout the period, so have capped chances to SChc
outside of peak daytime heating hours where slightly higher
probabilities emerge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered showers, and possibly some thunder, will approach
from the Ohio Valley later this evening and should push
northeastward across the area through the overnight.

Ensemble guidance suggests that we will see a period of MVFR
cigs later tonight into Saturday morning over the western (BFD,
JST) highlands and the central mountains (AOO, UNV, and possibly
IPT). The western highlands may see cigs dip to IFR for a few
hours centered around daybreak (~60% chc).

Improvement is expected areawide on Saturday, with all
airfields returning to VFR conds by afternoon.

Outlook...

Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise, no sig wx expected with
slightly lower humidity.

Mon...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

Tue-Wed...Scattered showers/storms and restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ026>028-035.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ036-056-057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...Evanego