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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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657 FXUS64 KCRP 171730 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Key Messages: -Heat Advisory in effect again today for the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads from 12PM to 7PM We might be all sick of it at this point, but it will be hot once again over South Texas today. With a 500mb high essentially progged over the region, expect warm temperatures and plentiful moisture in the region to yield heat indices between 110-114 degrees along the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. There is a medium to high chance this could be expanded further west into portions of the Brush Country, though the decision was to hold off at this time due uncertainties in the duration. This will be reassessed in the upcoming forecast package. There is a low (<16%) for showers and storms to develop with the arrival of the sea breeze this afternoon in the Victoria Crossroads. The overnight period will be reminiscent of previous nights with temperatures only "cooling" slightly into the 70s with some spots along the coast holding in the low 80s. Unfortunately, tomorrow`s story will feature more of the same with hot and humid temperatures with the low potential for showers and thunderstorms. Needless to say, make sure to take precautions during any outdoor activities, stay hydrated, and make sure to check the backseat of your vehicle before locking it. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Key Messages: - A moderate to major risk of heat related impacts across South Texas through the upcoming week. Summer time conditions will continue with hot and humid days and muggy nights and generally rain free for most of South Texas. Heat will continue to be the main concern through the end of next week. There is a moderate to major risk of heat related impacts across much of S TX each day, with some relief possible by Friday with slightly lower temperatures. Highs will generally range from low 90s along the immediate coastline to around 105-108 across the Rio Grande Plains. These high temperatures combined with a humid airmass will lead to heat indices ranging from 105 to 114 across S TX. A few spots may briefly reach up to 116. With a 40 to 70 percent chance of exceeding heat indices of 110, Heat Advisories will likely be needed each day this upcoming week. Rain chances will be very low (<15%) through Thursday. A mid level ridge of high pressure will remain in control through most of the week along with limited moisture. PWATs are progged to be around 1.5 inches Monday and Tuesday with pockets of 2 inch PWATS moving inland the latter half of the week. Even with slightly deeper moisture, the high pressure will continue to suppress convective development Wed/Thu. By Friday, there is a slight chance (15-20%) across the Victoria Crossroads as a surface to midlevel inverted trough approaches the coast and enhances sea breeze convection. But still, most locations will remain rain free. Although this week looks to be dry, we are approaching the peak of hurricane season. The time to prepare is now during the quiet weather. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Mainly VFR conditions expected across South Texas today accompanied by typical diurnal wind gusts up to around 18-20 knots. Models are indicating MVFR VSBY`s for ALI/VCT early tomorrow morning which is included in TAF`s. However, ALI had IFR VSBY`s for a couple hours early this morning and that is possible again for early tomorrow morning around 09Z-11Z eventhough models are not picking up on this, so confidence is low. && .MARINE... Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through next week with a very low (less than 13%) chances of rain tomorrow across the offshore Gulf waters. Generally dry conditions will continue through next week across most of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. There is a low to medium (10- 30%) chance across mainly the offshore waters by Friday. A weak to moderate south to southeasterly flow can be expected through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 96 80 94 79 / 0 10 10 0 Victoria 97 77 99 76 / 20 0 10 0 Laredo 103 78 102 78 / 0 0 10 0 Alice 100 77 98 76 / 10 0 10 0 Rockport 95 82 95 81 / 10 10 10 0 Cotulla 105 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 98 79 97 77 / 10 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 92 83 92 82 / 0 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>247- 342>344-346-347. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ234-241>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...BF/80