674
FXUS64 KCRP 201732
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1232 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Moisture has increased to around 2.1" PWAT from the latest 00Z
KCRP sounding and satellite across South Texas, resulting in a few
short-lived showers. Expect rain coverage to increase over the
coastal waters this morning, then extend inland over the Coastal
Plains with the afternoon seabreeze. Not a significant source of
lift outside of the seabreeze, so only containing a low chance of
20-35%. The loss of daytime heating will lead to a lull in
precipitation tonight.

Increasing low-level flow and a weak tropical wave will enhance
moisture Sunday, leading to PWATs near 2.25". The increase in
moisture combined with greater positive vorticity advection from
850-500mb will lead to medium to high rain chances over the Gulf
Waters. Rain chances will be greatest over the waters where
moisture and mid-level lift support is strongest, medium rain
chances of 30-40% will remain intact over the Coastal Plains.

Temperatures in the 90s combined with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s will result in heat index values of 105-109. Therefore,
a minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts continues for
South Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing moisture will lead to higher rain chances next week.

- Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding Monday.

- Slight Risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Through much of the long-term period, South Texas will be positioned
between two high-pressure systems. One will be over the western
CONUS and the other in the western Atlantic. Between these high-
pressure areas, an upper-level trough will deepen across the
Mississippi River Valley late this weekend through the middle of
next week, eventually extending southwestward into our area. The
combination of these features along with the arrival of deep
moisture from the Gulf (PWATs generally above 2.0 inches, reaching
up to 2.4-2.5 inches at times) and several mid-level shortwaves
providing positive vorticity advection, will lead to increased rain
and thunderstorm chances through much of the long-term period.

Starting Sunday night into Monday morning, precipitation chances
will range from 20-50% over the eastern portions of the CWA. Chances
will then increase from east to west through Wednesday of next week,
persisting through the end of the work week and into the next
weekend. The highest chances are expected Tuesday and Wednesday,
when probabilities will reach 60-90%. Rainfall accumulations of
around 1-3 inches are forecast through late week across the region,
with the highest amounts expected over the Victoria Crossroads and
Coastal Plains.

Given this setup, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained
a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall from Monday
through Tuesday morning. However, starting Tuesday and continuing
through Thursday morning, the WPC has introduced a Slight Risk
(level 2 out of 4) of excessive rainfall. Heavy rainfall could lead
to the potential for scattered flash flooding. This extended period
of rainy weather will coincide with "cooler" temperatures, with
highs dropping from the low to upper 90s on Monday to the mid 80s to
low 90s through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions so far today have been accompanied by light and
variable winds that will shift from the southeast this afternoon.
There`s a 15-35% chance for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon along the seabreeze with the upper end chances across
VCT. Otherwise expecting an increase of winds >11 kts until
shortly after sundown. Fog across the Coastal Plains early
tomorrow morning may result in MVFR conditions at VCT/ALI,
otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Weak variable winds this morning will shift south to southeasterly
this afternoon and persist through the weekend. Low to medium
chances of showers and thunderstorms today, will diminish tonight
before ramping back up to a 50-80% chance Sunday. Weak to
occasionally moderate south to southeasterly flow will persist
through next week. Low to medium rain chances of 20 to 50 percent
early Monday morning will increase to medium to high chances of
60 to 90 percent heading into the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  77  93  79 /  20   0  30  10
Victoria          93  75  92  75 /  30   0  40  10
Laredo            99  77  99  77 /  20  10  10  10
Alice             97  75  96  76 /  20  10  30   0
Rockport          92  80  92  80 /  30  10  40  20
Cotulla           99  77 100  78 /  10   0  10  10
Kingsville        96  77  94  78 /  20   0  30   0
Navy Corpus       90  81  90  81 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...BF/80