028
FXUS64 KCRP 030823
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
323 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts today and Thursday

The longwave trough at 500 mb in the center of the country will
begin to set the stage for what is to come in the long term forecast
section. In the short term however, the 500 mb ridge over the
southern tier of states still holds sway as far as the temperatures
and precipitation are concerned. Temperatures today are expected to
be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday`s highs, which ranged
from 89 to 102F at the ASOS locations. The humidity is also
expected to be about the same as yesterday with the PWAT values
ranging from 1.50" to 2.0". So the heat indices look to be the same
ranging from 100 to 111 again. So the heat risk looks to be minor
to moderate again. Thursday, looks to be a little warmer by a couple
of degrees, so think that the moderate to major risk of heat impacts
is appropriate as the heat indices rise so that we have a large
swath of 110 to 114 that includes most of the Brush Country, that
southern portion of the Coastal Bend, and a bit of the Victoria
Crossroads. The Rio Grande Plains look to remain about 105 to 110.

For the precipitation, this afternoon, as noted the humidity
increases, as we push in more 2.0" PWAT values before they fall
again tonight, and remain around 1.50" on Thursday. The added
moisture today will make for the very small chance (10-20%) for
showers, mainly along the Coastal Bend. Otherwise, most of the
region should remain rain free. Thursday, with the drying from the
sfc high over the region, the weather over the entire forecast
area should remain rain free.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Key Messages:

- High uncertainty late this week into this weekend depending on the
  track and impacts of Major Hurricane Beryl

The ridge that has held strong across the area will finally begin to
shift to the east as a trough moves across the Plains. Temperatures
will begin to drop a couple of degrees each day through the weekend,
with highs in the 90s along the coast to around 100 over the Brush
Country Sunday. Temperatures will continue to slowly drop through
the middle of the week, though the influx of deep tropical moisture
will keep heat index values in the 105-109 range across the area
through the middle of the week.

We`ll start our weekend mainly dry, but things get very tricky as
Hurricane Beryl makes its way west. High uncertainty remains with
both the track and intensity of Beryl. Model guidance has been
fairly consistent with low rain chances on Sunday, so confidence is
moderate to high with the PoP forecast for Saturday through Sunday
night. As Beryl approaches, the outer rain bands could reach South
Texas as early as Monday. Rain chances increase to moderate by
Tuesday. WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Remember, with the forecast
uncertainty, convection could start a bit earlier or later: this is
highly dependent on the forecast track. Currently, NHC is leaning
toward the more southerly solution hinted at by most of the
guidance, which would keep landfall near the Texas/Mexico border,
but there are a fair share of models that will bring Beryl up into
the Middle Texas coast. We`ll keep watching.

We know that we have not really addressed the question of winds. The
official forecast track indicates Beryl will move into an area with
higher shear and will move across the Yucatan. These will both serve
to weaken Beryl, with the current forecast indicating a weakening to
a tropical storm. Once again, the uncertainty makes this difficult
as Beryl is likely to move over water long enough to restrengthen
into a hurricane before landfall. How much will Beryl strengthen? We
just don`t know at this point. We`ll keep watching for this, too.

One of the only certainties with Beryl is that, as it moves into the
southwest Gulf of Mexico, it will bring increased swell to our area.
This is likely to result in an increased risk of dangerous rip
currents, high surf, and minor coastal flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR CIGs are expected to prevail through a majority of the TAF
period. Overnight into early Monday morning, brief periods of MVFR
CIGs and/or VSBYs will be possible due to patchy fog from ALI to
VCT. Light winds expected most of the night becoming  south to
southeast by Wednesday afternoon, with gusts around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Expect weak to moderate southerly flow this morning, with winds
becoming onshore by the afternoon. There is a small chance
(10-20%) for showers this afternoon. The weak to moderate flow
will become southerly again tonight, before going back to being
onshore by the afternoon. Weak to moderate onshore flow is
expected to continue through the end of the work week, with more
moderate flow developing Sunday. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase Sunday and continue through the middle
of next week. There is high uncertainty on the wind and wave
forecast as Hurricane Beryl moves into the Bay of Campeche, but
increased wave heights and long period swell are possible late
this weekend and early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  80  95  79 /  10  10  10   0
Victoria          95  78  96  76 /  10   0  10   0
Laredo           101  78 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             98  77  99  76 /  10   0  10   0
Rockport          94  83  94  82 /  10  10  10   0
Cotulla          102  78 104  77 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        96  78  97  77 /  10   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       91  83  92  82 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...TE