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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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418 FXUS64 KCRP 040520 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1220 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts mid-week - Medium chance for a Heat Advisory tomorrow A mid to upper level ridge will continue to sit across the Southern Plains and Southeast CONUS resulting in increased subsidence and promoting easterly flow a loft. Therefore, chances for rain will be low through tomorrow night, with only isolated showers possible from time to time. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal tomorrow which when mixed with high dewpoints will lead to heat index values between 105-113 across the Coastal Plains, northern Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend. Therefore, a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts are expected for the Independence Day holiday. If spending time outdoors, remember to remain hydrated and always look before you lock, cars can become ovens in as little as 10-15 minutes. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Key Messages: - All of South Texas interests should make sure their preparedness plans are in order and stay informed regarding Beryl - There is a 5-10% chance of tropical storm force winds within the next 5 days, with most likely time of arrival Sunday afternoon - Increasing rain chances the first half of next week with at least a 5% chance of flash flooding on Sunday All eyes remain on Hurricane Beryl as it currently churns just south of Jamaica as a Major Category 4 hurricane. Although increasing shear has prohibited further strengthening, Beryl has held strong and not weakened significantly since this morning. All guidance indicates steady weakening to occur but Beryl is expected to maintain hurricane status as it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday morning. Once Beryl emerges into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico there remains uncertainty on the track and strength. Majority of the guidance keeps the track around or south of Corpus Christi, leading to increasing rain chances Sunday through Wednesday with rainfall totals up to around 6.0". The storm total QPF varies drastically between model guidance and will likely change in future forecasts. Regardless of the exact track, swells will increase significantly, leading to a HIGH risk of rip currents and greater potential for coastal flooding. Wave heights of 10-12 feet are forecast over the offshore waters on Sunday. Temperatures will remain very warm Friday and Saturday with highs from the mid 90s to around 102 over the Rio Grande Plains. Mostly cloudy skies and increasing rain chances will limit high temperatures to the low to mid 90s early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Persistent summer time conditions continues. VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of the TAF period with very brief MVFR conditions for ALI and VCT early Thursday morning due to light patchy fog and lower cloud bases. Light S-SE winds overnight, becoming gusty with gusts around 20-25 knots Thursday afternoon into early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through the end of the work week, with more moderate flow developing Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday through the middle of next week. There is high uncertainty on the wind and wave forecast as Hurricane Beryl moves into the Bay of Campeche, but increased wave heights and long period swells are expected this weekend and early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 96 78 95 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 76 96 75 96 / 0 10 0 20 Laredo 78 102 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 76 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 82 94 81 95 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 78 103 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 77 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 83 91 83 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCP LONG TERM....EMF AVIATION...TE/81