802
FXUS64 KCRP 130536
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1236 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to Moderate risk of heat related impacts going into the
weekend.

As mentioned yesterday, we are in a wash, rinse, repeat pattern that
looks to be getting ready to end. Saturday looks like the 500 mb
trough and the weak sfc inverted trough associated with it, will be
moving out of the region late Saturday.

As with yesterday, the temperatures will kept lower today for high
temperatures with the morning rain, and the cloud cover to keep most
areas from achieving highs in the 90s. Many locations ended up in
the Mid to upper 80s, and a few lower 90s, so the sea breeze isnn`t
expected to be as strong, but it should begin to make some movement
inland, which should help to kick off more showers and thunderstorms
in the Coastal Bend. Otherwise, the showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop inland with the heat of the day. Overnight, the
rain should diminish, but moisture left over from the rain will help
to produce low to mid clouds over the region, much like this
morning. Rain showers, and isolated thunder, will be scattered over
nearshore Gulf waters, that will move inland again, especially north
of Port Aransas, and into the Victoria Crossroads. Through the day,
the 500mb trough moves out of the region, taking the 2.00"+ PWAT
with it. Temperatures will be a bit warmer, especially in the
southern Coastal Bend, where the Heat Index should approach 110F,
and has a 40% chance of verifying. Saturday night should be a
quiet night as high pressure builds into the region and winds
remain weak to moderate onshore through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts by mid-week.

To begin the long-term period, South Texas will come under the
influence of strong mid-to-upper-level high pressure by Sunday,
ushering in drier weather for the upcoming week. PWAT values will be
on the lower side compared to what we have seen lately, ranging from
1.40 to 1.70 inches on average through Tuesday of next week. While
this may provide enough moisture for some isolated afternoon sea
breeze convection (10-15% chance), most of the area will remain dry.
However, by Wednesday, PWATs increase to 1.80 to 2.00 inches. With
diurnal heating and the inland propagation of the sea breeze
boundary, there should be more instability to support increased
thunderstorm activity (20-25%) each afternoon through the end of the
period, mainly over the Coastal Bend and marine zones.

Though we will have some chances for precipitation in the long-
term, the primary concern for the next week will be the heat. With
the ridge in place, gradual warming is expected, resulting in highs
ranging from the low 90s to the low 100s. With increased moisture,
heat indices could climb to the 105-110 range, posing a moderate to
major risk of heat-related impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Showers continue across the region late this evening. This
activity should taper off in the next couple of hours. After a
brief lull in activity, showers will develop early Saturday
morning, eventually becoming thunderstorms as we destabilize. Best
chances are at ALI/CRP/VCT for convection tomorrow. Convection
looks to diminish by 00Z Sunday as drier air moves into the
region. Otherwise, a brief period of MVFR conditions will be
possible at ALI/COT/LRD/VCT around sunrise Saturday morning.

Haze may impact the western terminals during the late morning
hours as Saharan dust looks to ride up the Rio Grande. Confidence
was too low at this point to add any vis restrictions as a result.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will remain in place during the
upcoming week along with drier conditions after Saturday. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms is low, mainly over the
Coastal Bend and marine zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  93  78  93 /  20  40   0  10
Victoria          75  91  75  93 /  30  60   0  30
Laredo            76  98  76  97 /  30  20  10   0
Alice             75  96  75  96 /  20  40   0  10
Rockport          80  95  81  93 /  30  50   0  10
Cotulla           76  95  76  98 /  30  30  10  10
Kingsville        77  95  76  94 /  20  30   0  10
Navy Corpus       81  92  82  91 /  30  40   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...TC/95