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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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178 FXUS64 KCRP 031726 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts today and Thursday The longwave trough at 500 mb in the center of the country will begin to set the stage for what is to come in the long term forecast section. In the short term however, the 500 mb ridge over the southern tier of states still holds sway as far as the temperatures and precipitation are concerned. Temperatures today are expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday`s highs, which ranged from 89 to 102F at the ASOS locations. The humidity is also expected to be about the same as yesterday with the PWAT values ranging from 1.50" to 2.0". So the heat indices look to be the same ranging from 100 to 111 again. So the heat risk looks to be minor to moderate again. Thursday, looks to be a little warmer by a couple of degrees, so think that the moderate to major risk of heat impacts is appropriate as the heat indices rise so that we have a large swath of 110 to 114 that includes most of the Brush Country, that southern portion of the Coastal Bend, and a bit of the Victoria Crossroads. The Rio Grande Plains look to remain about 105 to 110. For the precipitation, this afternoon, as noted the humidity increases, as we push in more 2.0" PWAT values before they fall again tonight, and remain around 1.50" on Thursday. The added moisture today will make for the very small chance (10-20%) for showers, mainly along the Coastal Bend. Otherwise, most of the region should remain rain free. Thursday, with the drying from the sfc high over the region, the weather over the entire forecast area should remain rain free. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Key Messages: - High uncertainty late this week into this weekend depending on the track and impacts of Major Hurricane Beryl The ridge that has held strong across the area will finally begin to shift to the east as a trough moves across the Plains. Temperatures will begin to drop a couple of degrees each day through the weekend, with highs in the 90s along the coast to around 100 over the Brush Country Sunday. Temperatures will continue to slowly drop through the middle of the week, though the influx of deep tropical moisture will keep heat index values in the 105-109 range across the area through the middle of the week. We`ll start our weekend mainly dry, but things get very tricky as Hurricane Beryl makes its way west. High uncertainty remains with both the track and intensity of Beryl. Model guidance has been fairly consistent with low rain chances on Sunday, so confidence is moderate to high with the PoP forecast for Saturday through Sunday night. As Beryl approaches, the outer rain bands could reach South Texas as early as Monday. Rain chances increase to moderate by Tuesday. WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Remember, with the forecast uncertainty, convection could start a bit earlier or later: this is highly dependent on the forecast track. Currently, NHC is leaning toward the more southerly solution hinted at by most of the guidance, which would keep landfall near the Texas/Mexico border, but there are a fair share of models that will bring Beryl up into the Middle Texas coast. We`ll keep watching. We know that we have not really addressed the question of winds. The official forecast track indicates Beryl will move into an area with higher shear and will move across the Yucatan. These will both serve to weaken Beryl, with the current forecast indicating a weakening to a tropical storm. Once again, the uncertainty makes this difficult as Beryl is likely to move over water long enough to restrengthen into a hurricane before landfall. How much will Beryl strengthen? We just don`t know at this point. We`ll keep watching for this, too. One of the only certainties with Beryl is that, as it moves into the southwest Gulf of Mexico, it will bring increased swell to our area. This is likely to result in an increased risk of dangerous rip currents, high surf, and minor coastal flooding. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle for all sites. Gusty winds this afternoon will decrease tonight before slightly increasing tomorrow morning over 12 knots for a few locations. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Expect weak to moderate southerly flow this morning, with winds becoming onshore by the afternoon. There is a small chance (10-20%) for showers this afternoon. The weak to moderate flow will become southerly again tonight, before going back to being onshore by the afternoon. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through the end of the work week, with more moderate flow developing Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday and continue through the middle of next week. There is high uncertainty on the wind and wave forecast as Hurricane Beryl moves into the Bay of Campeche, but increased wave heights and long period swell are possible late this weekend and early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 80 95 79 / 10 10 10 0 Victoria 95 78 96 76 / 10 0 10 0 Laredo 101 78 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 98 77 99 76 / 10 0 10 0 Rockport 94 83 94 82 / 10 10 10 0 Cotulla 102 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 96 78 97 77 / 10 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 91 83 92 82 / 10 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM....LS AVIATION...JCP/84