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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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394 FXUS61 KCLE 291405 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1005 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system moving through the northern Great Lakes will extend a cold front across the area by tonight. High pressure will build behind the cold front for Sunday into Monday. A warm front will move through the region on Tuesday, followed by another cold front on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 945 am update... We made some minor edits to the hourly POPs from 14z this morning through 00z this evening to better reflect the latest radar trends and 12z HRRR/WRF model guidance regarding the developing of convection midday into this afternoon. The latest high-res model data shows new convection developing by 16z or so near the I-71 corridor in north central Ohio and pushing eastward into NEOH and NWPA during the afternoon hours. This indication from the latest short term guidance will be the severe weather threat we will be keeping a close eye on especially across NEOH and NWPA. The potential severe weather hazards for later today will be damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat as well. Previous discussion... Rain with some embedded thunder continues across the area this morning. Rain has been fairly poor at filling in south of I-76/US 224 and have taped PoPs back some in these areas over the next few hours. Meanwhile, rain has been fairly efficient in the portions of the forecast area near Lake Erie and fast rainfall rates have already necessitated a Flood Advisory for Lake and Ashtabula Counties. If rain continues to train over portions of NE OH and NW PA, additional flood headlines may be needed and have maintained the Flood Watch, as is. For today`s severe weather threat, believe that the main complex that will be problematic is starting to get together over West Central Indiana/East Central Illinois. This complex is moving east-northeast and will arrive at the southwest counties of the forecast area around Noon. Given that the southern counties of the forecast area have not received much rain this morning and there are some breaks in the clouds, becoming concerned that these areas could more easily get into the mid 80s by late morning and prompt enough instability to get things going for our severe weather risk. Will need to continue to monitor convective trends over the next 4 hours or so as this system heads toward the CWA. Previous Discussion... Active weather is expected across the forecast area today with flooding and severe weather hazards in play across the region. Showers with some embedded thunder have moved into the forecast area this morning and will continue to fill in, especially along the Lake Erie shoreline and Northwest Pennsylvania, where the best moisture convergence is occurring to promote new storm development. The I-90 corridor may end up having a few bouts of heavier rain this morning, given the current trajectory of storm development and will be highly scrutinized for future flood advisories and warnings, as the axis of heaviest rain for the early morning will favor this region. Development will expand southward later this morning with most of the eastern forecast area seeing a brief round of moderate to heavy rainfall. The overall threat for severe weather during the morning hours is low. While there is some ample wind shear across the region with the strong low level jet overhead, there is almost no instability to work with to get strong convective cores that would support a damaging wind threat. However, the shear with convection on the scope would not entirely preclude some rotation, but given that most of the convection this morning remains elevated, unless there is something that could make a storm more surface-based, the overall threat appears low through the morning hours. For this afternoon, the trend from the 00z guidance is a bit more concerning for a severe weather threat. There should be a minor reprieve of shower and storm activity that will ripple across the area before another round of showers and storms form. This brief window of no rain activity could allow just enough recharge of the atmosphere to get some instability to form across the region, and in turn, surface based strong to severe storms. Luckily, the better jet energy is departing to the northeast during the daytime hours and the better wind shear will be pulling away from the region. With that, expect shower and storms with a wind and perhaps a tornado threat to develop from about 11 AM in Northwest Ohio to exiting into western PA by about 6 PM. Convective cores will also disperse heavy rain across the region, fueled by PW values above 2" and warm cloud depth over 13k ft. Areas of Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA that receive repeated rounds of rain today will be at risk for flooding and the Flood Watch is valid through 8 PM tonight. The main cold front is delayed and will cross the forecast area during the nighttime hours and some scattered rain showers could redevelop with the frontal passage. The main area for these would be Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania and have low PoPs to account for this. Residual clouds in the region will prevent temperatures from all out plummeting with the cold frontal passage and have lows in the 60s tonight. The front departs for Sunday and high pressure will build into the region. Dry conditions with a cold advection regime will battle the diurnal cycle on Sunday and flatlined highs in the mid 70s is the best forecast at this time. Some clouds will hang around in the eastern portion of the forecast area through the day with the upper trough axis moving through the region, but the lack of lower level moisture should prohibit any showers from forming. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Quiet short term period in store as high pressure settles over the region. Some cloud cover will persist along the lakeshore Sunday night under northerly flow with chilly overnight lows dipping into the lower 50s. The high becomes more established overhead by Monday morning with below normal temperatures persisting through Monday night. Afternoon highs on Monday afternoon rise to the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows Monday night settling in the mid 50s. High pressure builds east as a warm front draped across the Mississippi River Valley begins to lift east into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday night. This will allow for broad southerly flow and WAA to bring afternoon highs on Tuesday to the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A warm pattern with daily opportunities for scattered showers and thunderstorm looks to set-up for the long term forecast. A broad upper level ridge will extend north into the region on Wednesday before a shortwave trough crosses the Central Great Lakes and pushes that ridge axis towards the East Coast. While the atmosphere may be capped until later in the afternoon or evening on Wednesday, a cold front settles south into the area late in the day and may provide a focus for some shower and thunderstorm activity. Wednesday still appears to be the hottest day of the week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s in NW Ohio. The humidity is expected to make a quick return on Wednesday ahead of that front. Chances for thunderstorms continuing into the 4th of July holiday will depend on how far south the front pushes before stalling. Chances for thunderstorms look higher towards Central Ohio during the day then potentially lifting back north into Thursday night as shortwave energy is forecast to move around the ridge again. Chances of thunderstorms look to continue into Friday but will need to refine pops and timing as we get closer in time. High temperatures will be near climatological highs for early July in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... A dichotomy of shower and storm activity across the area has allowed for variable conditions at the terminals this morning. KTOL, KCLE, and KERI have been the winners so far this morning with a couple round of rain impacting these terminals with heavy rainfall dropping visibility to IFR levels. Elsewhere, rain has been widely scattered and missing terminals so non-VFR has been overforecasted so far. Activity around KCLE and KERI will continue in and out over the next couple of hours before a break. Meanwhile, a line of showers and storms stretches from SE Michigan through Indiana and into eastern Illinois. This line will be problematic for later today with high impact TS expected for several terminals this afternoon. Have timed this line east across the forecast area with TEMPOs for IFR, TS, and gusty winds. Behind this line, conditions will trend to dry but some non-VFR ceilings will try to fill in across the region. The cold front will pass across the terminals late in the period and shift winds to the northwest and another window of MVFR ceilings will be present. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Winds develop out of the south this morning, likely accompanied by widespread showers and thunderstorms, as a warm front lifts north across the lake. Heavy rain and frequent lightning are possible with thunderstorms this morning. This will be followed by a cold front and wind shift to the northwest late tonight into Sunday. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots on Sunday will make for choppy conditions near Small Craft criteria with waves of 3-4 feet and moderate to high swim risk. High pressure returns for Monday and Tuesday with decreasing northeast winds on Monday and winds veering around to the southeast on Tuesday. The next week front is forecast to cross Lake Erie late Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ010>014-020>023- 031>033-038-089. PA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Griffin/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Iverson LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...KEC