081
FXUS61 KCLE 051914
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
314 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sag southeast across the area late Sunday
night and Monday. This front will stall just south of our area
through Tuesday as high pressure presses in from the north. The
front is expected to lift north towards the area on Wednesday
and then waffle north and south slightly through the rest of the
week, leading to a return to a more active weather pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The main weather stories through the near term forecast period
will be hot temperatures (expected to remain a bit below any
heat headline criteria) and thunderstorm potential, mainly
across Northwest Ohio late Sunday afternoon and evening.

The weather will largely be quiet this evening and tonight as
we`re on the northern periphery of ridging surface and aloft,
giving us a fairly dry column with minimal forcing. We`ve seen a
few showers pop along a lake breeze across Northwest PA this
afternoon, and maintain isolated to scattered shower/storm
potential in the forecast through early this evening across
Northeast OH and Northwest PA. The dry column and lack of
larger-scale forcing are working against this activity, but
there`s just enough low-level moisture for the lake breeze to
try to trigger convection. This activity should dissipate or
exit east-southeast by about 8 PM. Lows tonight will generally
range from the upper 60s to low 70s. A few spots in inland
Northwest PA may dip a bit lower, with a spot like downtown
Cleveland probably not dipping below 75. Probably a bit too much
of a pressure gradient for radiation fog development tonight.

Most of Sunday will feature very warm temperatures and plenty of
sunshine for most of the day. Highs will generally push into the
low to mid 90s with fairly deep mixing beneath 850mb temps of
18-20C. The one saving grace is that deep mixing should help
keep dew points well into the 60s across much of the area
tomorrow. So while it will be hot and folks with outdoor plans
or without AC should be prepared for the heat, heat index values
should generally top out 92-98 degrees...safely below headline
criteria across most of the area. Expect scattered to numerous
showers and storms to develop from IN into MI Sunday afternoon
as a cold front begins approaching. This activity should make it
into Northwest OH during the late afternoon or evening hours on
Sunday, as 1000-2000 J/KG of uncapped MLCAPE are expected to be
in place with some added forcing from a shortwave glancing the
region through the evening. Boosted POPs to 60-70% from Erie to
Wyandot Counties points northwest. There is non-zero potential
for a downburst or two with stronger storms across Northwest OH
late Sunday given steep low-level lapse rates and dry mid-level
air, though weak shear and modest forcing preclude a more
organized severe or flooding threat. An isolated shower or storm
may try developing along the lake breeze northeast of Cleveland
Sunday afternoon, though well-mixed and fairly dry low-levels
will be prominent. Given this, did not include POPs for showers
or storms with the lake breeze Sunday afternoon.

POPs drop off to the east/southeast into Sunday night as
activity should start petering out as the sun sets and as the
activity pushes into a somewhat drier and more stable airmass.
Still, some activity could make it all the way into Northeast OH
before completely dissipating late Sunday evening. Otherwise,
maintain low POPs across all but our far southeast through
Sunday night given the front slowly pushing into the area. With
only modest forcing it`s questionable how much shower/thunder
activity actually persists through the night, though there`s
enough support to keep a low mention in through the night. It
will be a warm night Sunday night, lows upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The main focus for the short term will be a cold front crossing
the area on Monday and stalling just to our south Monday night
through Tuesday night. Shower/storm potential remains ahead of
the front, with high pressure attempting to build from the north
and dry us out behind the front.

The front will likely be draped from near Toledo east across
Lake Erie to start Monday, with warm and humid conditions
persisting ahead of it. The front is expected to sag south to
southeast through Monday afternoon and clear our area by mid
evening. Jet support and shear remain modest on Monday, though
strong heating of a moist and uncapped airmass should allow for
moderate to strong instability and at least scattered showers
and storms to develop ahead of the front through the afternoon.
POPs are lower across Northwest OH on Monday, though range from
50-80% elsewhere. Precipitable water values approaching 2.00"
and generally weak west-southwest flow aloft paralleling the
sagging cold front could lead to some training convection with
very heavy rain rates on Monday...so will need to watch for
isolated flash flooding. Weak forcing and recent drier weather
do argue against a more notable/widespread threat. Moderate to
strong instability, steep low-level lapse rates, and up to 25kt
of deep-layer bulk shear could support a few stronger pulse
storms and/or small clusters that could produce isolated
downbursts on Monday. We are currently not outlooked in a risk
for severe weather and am not expecting an organized/widespread
threat, though we can`t rule out something isolated. The main
thing to watch for Monday will be the timing of the front...if
it trends faster/slower the amount of convection across the
local area will decrease/increase.

POPs gradually shut off from northwest to southeast Monday night
into Tuesday, though still hang on to some low POPs across our
southern fringes through Tuesday as it`s uncertain how far south
the front will push before stalling.

Monday will still be warm and humid, especially towards Canton
and Youngstown where the front will take longest to cross. Highs
are expected to generally be in the mid to perhaps upper 80s,
with enough humidity to push heat index values to 90-95 in
Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Lows Monday night will be
slightly cooler than prior nights, generally 65-70. Highs
Tuesday reach the low to mid 80s, with a fairly comfortable
night Tuesday night as lows settle into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term forecast period will feature slightly warmer than
average temperatures with occasional shower and storm chances.
A fairly zonal pattern is expected through the second half of
the week with troughs over the Northeast and northern Rockies/
Plains, with ridging focused over the south. The front discussed
above is likely to drift back north and then waffle through the
long term period as various weak shortwaves track through the
region. Model agreement on the timing of these weak shortwaves
and associated rain chances is not great, so expect refinement
of the forecast over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Aloft, W`erly to WNW`erly flow backs gradually toward SW`erly
through 18Z/Sun as a ridge exits slowly E`ward and a trough
approaches from the northern and central Great Plains. At the
surface, the ridge continues to exit slowly SE`ward. Our
regional surface winds trend S`erly to SW`erly around 5 to 15
knots through 18Z/Sun. Isolated and periodic gusts up to 20
knots are expected after 15Z/Sun. Note: a WSW`erly to WNW`erly
lake breeze along/within several miles of Lake Erie from roughly
the longitude of KBKL and points east is expected to dissipate
around 00Z/Sun. However, after ~15Z/Sun, another lake breeze
should develop in the same general area and cause winds to veer
toward W`erly.

Mainly VFR and fair weather are expected through the TAF period.
However, a few showers and thunderstorms should continue to
develop along the lake breeze front through this early evening
and impact inland portions of far-NE OH and NW PA. Brief MVFR
to IFR and brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 40 knots
should accompany showers and especially storms. Some of this
convection may impact KYNG, but odds favor convection missing
KYNG generally to the north. Showers/storms should dissipate by
01Z/Sun as the boundary layer begins to stabilize via nocturnal
cooling. Note: the scattered cloud layer based at 5kft AGL and
forecast for each TAF site, except KERI, represents expected
diurnal cumuliform clouds through ~00Z/Sun and again after
~14Z/Sun.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms on Sunday through this Wednesday, mainly
during the afternoon and early evening hours of each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves of 3 feet or less and wind speeds of 5 to 15 knots are
expected on Lake Erie through this Thursday. A high pressure
ridge exits slowly SE`ward from the Lake Erie region through
Sunday. A lake breeze along and near the lakeshore from roughly
downtown Cleveland through Erie County, PA will dissipate early
this evening. Otherwise, S`erly to SW`erly winds are expected
through Sunday. SW`erly winds should veer gradually to N`erly
Sunday night through Monday night as a cold front drifts SE`ward
across the lake. On Tuesday through Thursday, winds should
trend variable in direction as a ridge attempts to build from
the James Bay area and the aforementioned front wavers in a
north-south manner between the Upper and Mid OH Valley and Lake
Erie in response to weak lows that should move generally E`ward
along the front. Winds should trend onshore during the late
morning through early evening hours of Tuesday through Thursday,
respectively, due to lake breeze development.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ010>014-
     020>022-089.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka