630
FXUS62 KCHS 041917
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
317 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A hot and humid air mass will build over the region late week
into the weekend. A weak cold front could approach the region
later this weekend and stall over the area through the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Visible satellite indicated scattered fair weather cumulus clouds
along a developing sea breeze. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicated
little to no values of normalized CAPE. Given the lack of
instability, the forecast will limit the mention of showers to the
Altamaha River basin late this afternoon. Any showers that develop
across SE GA/SC should remain very brief, pulsing through its
life cycle within an hour.

Tonight: Near term guidance indicates that a broad 595 DM ridge
will remain centered over the northern coast of the Gulf of
Mexico. At the sfc, a weak ridge is forecast to linger across
the forecast area through the night. Sky should remain mostly
clear to partly clouds overnight. Due to a llvl inversion, it is
possible that firework smoke may linger in the BL for some time
late this evening. Low temperatures are forecast to range in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid-level ridge across the Southeast U.S. will remain in place
through the period. The pattern features little distinct surface
features; however, generally speaking there is high pressure
offshore and trough of low pressure inland. Friday will still feel
the influence of the ridge aloft, with a mid-level temperature
inversion keeping convection limited especially along the coast.
Therefore, the forecast for Friday reflects chance POPs (20-35%) far
inland where some deeper moisture begins to creep in. The weekend
should be a bit more convectively active. A weak front will approach
the region on Saturday but will stay west of the local area.
However, as mid-level moisture advection ramps up, we anticipate
coverage to follow suite. There could be convection initiation along
the sea breeze, but it appears development will trigger via llvl
convergence near the inland surface trough/stationary front and then
move into the local area from the west. A similar set-up is expected
Sunday with the surface front providing focus for convection.

High temps will reach the mid to upper 90s Friday away from the
coast. Saturday temps will peak in the low to mid 90s, but it will
feel even hotter with heat indices approaching the local Heat
Advisory criteria of 108 degrees in spots. Some locations could
require an Excessive Heat Advisory Saturday. Sunday will be a few
degrees cooler, in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures will
remain mild, in the mid to upper 70s, both Friday and Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging aloft will prevail through the middle of next week with a
broad trough to the northwest and a weakening upper low nearing the
Southeast US coast. A stationary front looks to remain in the
vicinity of the forecast area, setting up across the Midlands. In
addition to the sea breeze, the front will provide the focus for
convection With plenty of deep moisture in place. At least scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, with coverage
peaking in the afternoon and evenings. Temperatures are forecast to
stay slightly above normal, in the low to mid 90s through next week,
with lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Prior to the 18Z TAFs, visible satellite indicated scattered
fair weather cumulus clouds along a developing sea breeze. The
weak sea breeze should pass over the terminals this afternoon,
resulting in SSE winds less than 10 kts. Latest SPC mesoanalysis
indicated little to no values of normalized CAPE. Given the lack
of instability, the terminals should remain dry. Winds are
forecast to turn from the southwest after sunset, speeds
favoring values between 3-5 kts.

As the case in recent years, following this evening`s
pyrotechnic displays, smoke or haze may result in periods of
visibility restrictions at the terminals tonight. Forecast
soundings indicate that a BL inversion may form as early as 2-3Z
with light and variable winds. Future TAF issuances may include
some degree of visibility restrictions associated with firework
smoke.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evenings,
this weekend through the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A weak ridge of high pressure will linger across the
coastal waters. Winds will turn from the east, speeds decreasing to
around 5 kts late tonight. Seas should generally range between 2-3
ft.

Friday through Tuesday: Southerly flow will persist through early
next week. Marine conditions will stay solidly below small craft
advisory criteria with speeds 15 knots or less and seas averaging 2-
3 feet.

Rip Currents: A swell of 2 feet every 10 seconds and proximity to
the new moon will maintain an enhanced risk of rip currents on
Friday. A Moderate risk is forecast at all area beaches. An enhanced
risk of rip currents could continue through the weekend.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...BRM
LONG TERM...BRM
AVIATION...BRM/NED
MARINE...BRM/NED