059
FXUS62 KCAE 030007
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
807 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly cooler and drier air will remain over the area through
tonight. Moisture increases through the week and into the
weekend with isolated to widely scattered convection possible
each afternoon. Ridging builds into the area late this week and
into the weekend resulting in above normal temperatures and Heat
Index values near 110 possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):
- Dry and seasonably cool tonight.

Front remains south of the area with drier air from the
northeast leading to clear skies. Some lingering clouds will be
possible overnight in the CSRA but mostly clear skies expected.
Lows will be in the mid 60s across the north to around 70 in the
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Heat Index values up to 105 possible Thursday afternoon

Ridging over the Deep South will remain in place through the
short term. Surface high pressure will shift off of the East
Coast on Wednesday night, leading to increasing moisture for
Thursday.

With dry air still in place over most of the area for Wednesday
we don`t expect much in the way of rainfall. A few
showers/storms will be possible across the southern FA but a
subsidence inversion will hinder convection. HREF ensemble
members show little or no convective coverage across the
southern Midlands and CSRA on Wednesday afternoon. With moisture
creeping back into the area on Thursday there may be an
isolated shower or weak storm, but again the subsidence
inversion will hinder convective development. The higher
dewpoints and warmer temps expected on Thursday should push Heat
Index values into the 100 to 105 range. Reaching Heat Advisory
criteria seems unlikely at this time. Highs will warm through
the short term with highs in the mid to upper 90s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):
- Heat Advisory Criteria possible Friday through Sunday
- Thunderstorm chances increase late this week and this weekend

Upper ridging will build eastward over the forecast area in the
first half of the long term. Moisture increases through SW flow
with mean PWAT values from global ensembles rising to around 2
inches Friday, remaining slightly above normal through the long
term.

Friday and Friday night: Expect partly cloudy conditions with
weak southerly maritime flow increasing the moisture content for
the area. Expect an increase in dew point temperatures to the
mid 70s. Few showers in the afternoon with low coverage expected
due to a capping inversion and ridging aloft. Clouds will
slightly offset daytime heating, but expect mid to upper 90`s
for high temperatures. Higher humidity for the end of the week
will raise peak heat index values above 105 with a max of 110.

A weak front will work into the Southeast over the weekend, but
will likely remain west of the forecast area, keeping moisture
in place. SW flow ahead of the front and convergence from a lee-
side trough should promote scattered diurnal convection for the
remainder of the long term. However widespread convection is
unlikely given the upper ridging. With increasing moisture and
warming 850mb temps, we will see highs mainly in the mid to
upper 90s this weekend and Heat Index values as high as 110.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to dominate the period with brief early
morning restrictions possible at AGS/DNL.

High pressure and dry air remain over the area with clear skies
and winds quickly becoming light and variable. Main concern for
the period will be the potential for MVFR cig restrictions at
AGS/DNL during the early morning and sunrise hours. Confidence
in MVFR cigs developing remains low so have continued with
TEMPO and will monitor. With sunrise and onset of mixing MVFR
cigs will quickly mix out with VFR conditions for the remainder
of the period. Winds will remain light and variable through
about midday then become easterly at 7 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture and potential for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions returns
Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Key messages(s):
-Increased Fire Danger mid to late week.
-Rainfall probabilities remain relatively low mid week.

Increased fire danger during the Independence Day Holiday week,
especially late week as temperatures rise again to well above
normal values. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
possibly may aid current dry conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$