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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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087 FXUS61 KBUF 201423 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1023 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue fine summer weather with low humidity and plenty of sunshine across our region today. A moisture starved cold front will drop southward into the area tonight and Sunday, bringing a band of clouds and possibly an isolated shower or two, but most areas will stay dry. The next chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive Tuesday, along with an increase in humidity. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Visible satellite imagery showing full sunshine across most of the region this morning, with just a few diurnal cumulus across Jefferson County and some high/thin cirrus across Allegany County. Warm air advection from southwesterly flow aloft today, along with a warmer start, will add several degrees onto our highs this afternoon versus Friday. Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, or close to normal. Plenty of sunshine today, with just slight increase in cloud cover across Allegany County as deeper Atlantic moisture passes through central PA to ENY. A cold front will drop southward from Canada tonight. This front is rather moisture starved, but clouds will gather within a ribbon of deeper 850-700 hPa moisture, with these clouds dropping across Lake Ontario and points eastward later tonight. A spotty shower is possible along the front across the North Country, but many areas will remain dry. Lows tonight will drop back into the mid 50s across interior SW NYS where skies will remain mainly clear, while closer to the Lakes and east of Lake Ontario lows will be around 60 to the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A weak shortwave trough will move through the mid-level longwave trough over northern Quebec Sunday, supporting a backdoor cold front that will slide southeast into the region Sunday afternoon. Forcing from the boundary in combination with modest diurnal instability could bring a few spotty showers or an isolated thunderstorm. This especially could be the case across the Niagara Frontier where some lake breeze interaction may take place. The frontal boundary will weaken and slide southeast through the region Monday. While the area will remain mostly dry, a few afternoon showers will be possible along the frontal boundary across southeastern portions of the area from the interior Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak broad, positively tilted trough will drop south from central Canada into the Great Lakes region this week. This trough will allow a gradual northward advection of GOMEX based moisture into the Northeast. Translating this pattern for the weather across the lower Great Lakes, the increasingly unstable environment will allow for a return to a much more unsettled pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. In general, chances will be highest across the interior in the afternoon hours each day when diurnal heating is at its strongest, while diminishing overnight and into the morning hours. PWATs near or exceeding 1.7" within this increasingly humid airmass will allow for periods of heavy rain, though there remains typical long range model discrepancies on how exactly the trough across the East will evolve which limits certainty in timing, placement and amounts. Temperatures Tuesday will top out in the low to mid 80s in most spots, while reaching the upper 70s and low 80s Wednesday and Thursday though with increased humidity. Overnight lows with range in the 60s each night. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For the 12Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions are found and these conditions will likely continue through the TAF cycle. Mainly clear skies will continue today, with nothing more than high/thin cirrus across the Southern Tier and scattered diurnal cumulus across the North Country. A weak cold front will drop southward tonight, bringing an increase in clouds for KART, but remaining within the VFR flight range. Outlook... Sunday and Monday...VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain across the eastern Great Lakes today with light winds and waves. A weak cold front will fade as it drops southward across the eastern Great Lakes early Sunday. This will result in a weak pressure gradient only supporting gentle to occasionally moderate breezes and waves two feet or less on Lake Ontario to close the weekend. This weak pressure gradient will yield light winds and again minimal waves for Monday, to start the new work week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thomas NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/Thomas SHORT TERM...EAJ/TMA LONG TERM...EAJ/PP AVIATION...Hitchcock/Thomas MARINE...Thomas